Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T19:22:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
74 0x74fc…3e5a crypto 51 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL −$115 (-8%) realized −$83 · open −$32
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate57%27W / 20L
Drawdown91%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day38.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% +$374
other 4% −$12
sports 2% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)+21.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 +34.4% +21.6% 57% 49% +8.2%
≤30d 47 +34.4% +21.6% 57% 49% +8.2%
≤90d 47 +34.4% +21.6% 57% 49% +8.2%
all 47 +34.4% +21.6% 57% 49% +8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +21.6% 49% +8.2%
10% ← realistic here +9.9% 43% -2.2%
15% -0.7% 36% -11.6%
20% -10.4% 26% -20.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 62% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +32% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +34% · $-wt +32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +72% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$22 · ×1.38 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.86 per $1 lost it wins $1.86
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized−$83
Unrealized−$32
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses27 / 20
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)47 / 51
History coverage3d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day38.7
Drawdown91%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 8¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-64%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Yes 21¢ 4¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-81%)
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? Yes 14¢ 2¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-87%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? Yes 8¢ 1¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-92%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $10 +$1 +13%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $20 +$10 +48%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 26 $163 +$242 +148%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 26 $52 −$18 -34%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 26 $5 $0 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 26 $136 +$264 +194%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 26 $26 −$20 -76%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 26 $26 +$20 +77%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 26 $21 −$20 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 26 $26 +$12 +44%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$3 +51%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 26 $204 +$18 +9%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 26 $106 −$5 -5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 26 $11 −$8 -76%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$1 +26%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 26 $105 +$199 +190%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 26 $323 −$305 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 26 $84 +$2 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -94%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Neither team to score first? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$3 -64%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$1 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$4 -73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 25 $26 −$26 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$4 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$4 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$4 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$2 +46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$3 +56%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$2 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$4 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 25 $5 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$4 +77%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$2 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$1 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$2 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$6 +109%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 25 $6 −$1 -16%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 24 $1 $0 +32%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 91¢ $11 12m
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 90¢ $30 12m
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $5 23m
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 62¢ $387 24m
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $106 24m
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $26 25m
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $26 26m
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $26 30m
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Down 70¢ $34 31m
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 32m
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Down 77¢ $5 35m
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 36m
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $399 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $27 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $104 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Down 8¢ $6 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $26 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET SELL Up 81¢ $46 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $26 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Down 38¢ $38 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $26 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Up 66¢ $8 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $3 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.52 · official $7.76 (match) · 127 history records