Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:32:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
74 0x74fc…a0bd sports 206 markets active 0h ago coverage 538d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$62,380 (-28%) realized −$60,635 · open −$1,745
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate52%104W / 96L
Whale WR52%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,071per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$1,355est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$4,574now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5,331
7 days−$1,174
14 days+$203
30 days−$3,181
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% −$56,795
other 12% −$8,055
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-18.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 +0.6% -9.0% 58% 52% -13.3%
≤30d 168 -0.8% -10.3% 56% 52% -12.3%
≤90d 168 -0.8% -10.3% 56% 52% -12.3%
all 200 -9.7% -18.3% 52% 48% -36.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.3% 48% -36.2%
10% -26.1% 44% -42.3%
15% -33.3% 38% -47.9%
20% -39.8% 27% -53.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 52% (≥$1,058) neutral
Persistence
early -19% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$477 vs −$1,174 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

538d coverage
Net worth$4,574
Realized−$60,635
Unrealized−$1,745
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses104 / 96
Whale WR (big bets)52%
Est. fees paid−$1,355
Open positions6
Markets (closed)200 / 206
History coverage538d
Avg bet$1,071
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 200 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Galions 63¢ 100¢ $1,019 $1,614 +$596 (+58%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 70¢ 70¢ $1,050 $1,058 +$8 (+1%)
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 64¢ 36¢ $1,335 $766 −$568 (-43%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Under 50¢ 50¢ $754 $747 −$8 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $270 $242 −$28 (-11%)
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Galions 49¢ 100¢ $68 $138 +$71 (+104%)
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Solary 60¢ 0¢ $1,149 $10 −$1,139 (-99%)
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Solary 29¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 47 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $90 +$58 +65%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $5 +$4 +76%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $99 +$25 +25%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $99 +$28 +28%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $1,563 +$1,451 +93%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $100 +$1 +1%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $108 −$29 -27%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $1,959 +$1,036 +53%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $1,087 −$1,070 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $1,741 −$1,724 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $162 −$21 -13%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $1,642 −$1,620 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $1,980 −$1,959 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $851 −$840 -99%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $118 +$24 +20%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $133 −$13 -10%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $98 +$86 +88%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $789 +$190 +24%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P Jun 13 $970 −$958 -99%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $1,006 +$326 +32%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $1,597 +$531 +33%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $122 −$50 -41%
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $10 $0 -2%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 12 $13 −$1 -8%
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $71 −$3 -4%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $64 −$9 -13%
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $1,058 +$499 +47%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $188 +$2 +1%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $206 −$20 -10%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $911 +$797 +87%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $949 +$732 +77%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs RED Canids - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $99 +$13 +13%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs RED Canids - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $35 +$11 +30%
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs HMBLE - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $912 +$456 +50%
LoL: BOMBA Team vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 11 $1,945 +$1,055 +54%
LoL: BOMBA Team vs Anubis Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $806 +$395 +49%
Game Handicap: ME (-1.5) vs UCAM Esports Club (+1.5) Jun 11 $822 −$810 -99%
LoL: PCIFIC vs Forsaken (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 10 $426 +$206 +48%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $949 +$851 +90%
LoL: Frites Esports Club vs BOMBA Team (BO3) - EMEA Masters Play-In Jun 09 $895 −$882 -98%
LoL: FN Esports vs Verdant (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swiss Stage Jun 09 $409 −$57 -14%
LoL: LOS vs Vivo Keyd Stars - Game 2 Winner Jun 09 $80 +$45 +57%
LoL: LOS vs Vivo Keyd Stars - Game 1 Winner Jun 09 $66 +$57 +86%
LoL: Leviatan Esports vs paiN Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $300 +$8 +3%
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs CITA Kaizen (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swiss Stage Jun 08 $280 −$53 -19%
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs Partizan Sangal (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swiss S Jun 08 $196 +$57 +29%
LoL: Leviatan Esports vs paiN Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $92 +$10 +11%
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs Verdant (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swiss Stage Jun 08 $9 −$9 -99%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $662 +$338 +51%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $131 +$67 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner BUY Galions 73¢ $24 16m
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner BUY Galions 59¢ $9 20m
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner BUY Solary 64¢ $187 26m
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner BUY Solary 65¢ $124 27m
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner BUY Galions 29¢ $9 33m
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $766 37m
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner BUY Galions 50¢ $8 39m
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner BUY Galions 44¢ $9 39m
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner BUY Galions 39¢ $7 40m
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner BUY Galions 38¢ $2 41m
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner BUY Solary 58¢ $852 45m
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner BUY Solary 22¢ $2 1h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner SELL Galions 71¢ $4 1h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner BUY Solary 29¢ $4 1h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner SELL Solary 38¢ $6 1h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner BUY Galions 63¢ $1 1h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner BUY Galions 63¢ $3 1h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner BUY Galions 63¢ $3 1h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner BUY Galions 63¢ $3 1h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner BUY Galions 61¢ $81 1h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner BUY Galions 63¢ $6 1h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner BUY Galions 65¢ $412 1h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner BUY Galions 62¢ $521 1h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner BUY Solary 40¢ $9 1h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner BUY Galions 59¢ $3 1h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY LYON 90¢ $65 17h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY LYON 65¢ $34 18h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY LYON 94¢ $36 18h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY LYON 77¢ $29 19h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY LYON 77¢ $4 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,574.30 · official $4,574.30 (match) · 1325 history records