Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T08:52:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

74
0x74fd…6c13
crypto · 93 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$937 -16%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,046 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,046
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses43 / 50
Est. fees paid−$45
Open positions0
Markets (closed)93 / 93
History coverage78d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 93 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$188
7 days−$190
14 days−$192
30 days−$229
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: BC.Game Esports vs Voca (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Stage Voca 42¢ 0¢ $42 $0 −$42 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner TheMongolz 52¢ 0¢ $49 $0 −$49 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner PARIVISION 57¢ 0¢ $49 $0 −$49 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner 9z 59¢ 0¢ $65 $0 −$65 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Up 32¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Up 38¢ 0¢ $48 $0 −$48 (-100%)
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner LGD Gaming 11¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Natus Vincere - Map 1 Winner Natus Vincere 36¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs EYEBALLERS - Map 1 Winner EYEBALLERS 61¢ 0¢ $49 $0 −$49 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: BC.Game Esports vs Voca - Map 2 Winner Voca 35¢ 0¢ $49 $0 −$49 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $96 $0 −$96 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MIBR (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Stage Legacy 70¢ 0¢ $99 $0 −$99 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner MOUZ 45¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Down 57¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner TheMongolz 54¢ 0¢ $49 $0 −$49 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 9z 27¢ 0¢ $65 $0 −$65 (-100%)
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Yandex (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage PARIVISION 7¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs FOKUS - Map 2 Winner FOKUS 29¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs ALGO Esports - Map 1 Winner ALGO Esports 20¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Down 40¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Astralis 61¢ 0¢ $173 $0 −$173 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Up 43¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Wildcard (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Stage FOKUS 67¢ 0¢ $101 $0 −$101 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Down 23¢ 0¢ $115 $0 −$115 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: B8 vs 3DMAX - Map 2 Winner B8 56¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 14 $13 −$6 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 14 $38 −$32 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $66 −$65 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $66 −$65 -99%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 06 $44 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 06 $91 +$9 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 06 $81 +$7 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 06 $21 −$20 -96%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs ALGO Esports - Map 1 Winner May 30 $9 −$9 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET May 30 $6 +$3 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET May 30 $3 +$3 +95%
Counter-Strike: Alliance vs Sharks - Map 2 Winner May 29 $4 $0 -7%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Yandex (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner May 25 $32 −$32 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Aurora Gaming - Map 2 Winner May 12 $5 +$3 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET May 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Aurora Gaming - Map 1 Winner May 12 $25 −$20 -80%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner May 12 $10 +$15 +152%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Natus Vincere - Map 1 Winner Apr 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Apr 17 $12 −$12 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Apr 07 $122 −$115 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Apr 07 $118 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Apr 07 $232 −$106 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Apr 07 $392 −$146 -37%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs EYEBALLERS (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Stage Apr 07 $250 −$155 -62%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs EYEBALLERS - Map 1 Winner Apr 07 $50 −$49 -99%
Counter-Strike: BC.Game Esports vs Voca (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group St Apr 06 $43 −$42 -98%
Counter-Strike: BC.Game Esports vs Voca - Map 1 Winner Apr 06 $50 +$73 +145%
Counter-Strike: BC.Game Esports vs Voca - Map 2 Winner Apr 06 $50 −$49 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Apr 06 $50 −$49 -99%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Apr 06 $100 −$49 -49%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs FaZe - Map 1 Winner Apr 06 $30 +$33 +109%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Apr 06 $50 −$49 -99%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs EYEBALLERS - Map 2 Winner Apr 06 $26 +$41 +158%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs EYEBALLERS (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Stage Apr 06 $476 +$207 +43%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs 3DMAX - Map 2 Winner Apr 06 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Apr 06 $450 +$100 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Apr 06 $100 −$61 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Apr 06 $100 −$96 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Apr 06 $100 +$54 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Apr 06 $50 −$48 -96%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Wildcard (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Stage Apr 06 $102 −$101 -99%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MIBR (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Stage Apr 06 $100 −$99 -99%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs BIG (BO3) - HLC Belgrade Pro Playoffs Apr 06 $50 +$158 +317%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs BIG - Map 2 Winner Apr 05 $15 +$33 +219%
Counter-Strike: Sangal vs Passion UA (BO3) - Urban Riga Open #4 Playof Apr 05 $20 +$29 +145%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Apr 05 $10 −$10 -96%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - PGL Bucharest G Apr 05 $75 +$37 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 51% −$346
sports 49% −$700
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET SELL Down 33¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET SELL Up 6¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $21 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 27¢ $66 11h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 59¢ $66 12h
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 11¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $91 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $81 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET SELL Up 48¢ $45 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $44 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $21 8d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs ALGO Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY ALGO Esports 20¢ $9 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $6 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $3 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $6 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $6 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $3 14d
Counter-Strike: Alliance vs Sharks - Map 2 Winner SELL Alliance 50¢ $3 15d
Counter-Strike: Alliance vs Sharks - Map 2 Winner BUY Alliance 52¢ $4 15d
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Yandex (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY PARIVISION 7¢ $1 18d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 40¢ $32 33d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Aurora Gaming - Map 2 Winner SELL MOUZ 61¢ $8 33d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Aurora Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY MOUZ 38¢ $5 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 33d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Aurora Gaming - Map 1 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 9¢ $5 33d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Aurora Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 44¢ $25 33d
Counter-Strike: NRG vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 39¢ $10 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -97.3% -97.6% 0% 0% -97.2%
≤30d 16 -51.8% -56.3% 31% 12% -52.0%
≤90d 93 -8.8% -17.5% 46% 41% -25.6%
all 93 -8.8% -17.5% 46% 41% -25.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.5% 41% -25.6%
10% -25.4% 41% -32.7%
15% -32.6% 34% -39.2%
20% -39.2% 27% -45.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 215 history records