Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T19:50:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
75 0x7500…0dec crypto 79 markets active 1h ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$197 (+6%) realized +$194 · open +$3
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate71%55W / 22L
Drawdown91%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$253now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$169
7 days+$357
14 days+$357
30 days+$382
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% +$301
crypto 25% −$142
weather 21% +$37
sports 8% +$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +17.7% +6.5% 59% 55% +12.2%
≤30d 38 +12.9% +2.1% 58% 55% +12.3%
≤90d 77 +3.3% -6.6% 71% 44% -2.7%
all 77 +3.3% -6.6% 71% 44% -2.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.6% 44% -2.7%
10% -15.5% 23% -12.0%
15% -23.7% 14% -20.5%
20% -31.2% 10% -28.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$19 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.55 per $1 lost it wins $1.55
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$253
Realized+$194
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses55 / 22
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)77 / 79
History coverage82d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown91%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 77 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 82¢ 84¢ $200 $204 +$4 (+2%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $161 +$21 +13%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $25 −$11 -45%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $100 +$15 +15%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $20 +$6 +31%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $151 +$60 +40%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $50 +$5 +10%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Jun 22 $5 +$30 +590%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $101 +$55 +55%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $100 +$12 +12%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $10 +$4 +40%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $167 +$85 +51%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $141 +$19 +13%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $10 +$2 +23%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $3 −$1 -19%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5 −$4 -80%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $29 +$31 +105%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -99%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $20 −$18 -90%
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $5 +$23 +442%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $112 +$82 +73%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $103 +$14 +14%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $67 +$33 +50%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $9 +$1 +11%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 20? Jun 16 $10 −$6 -53%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $14 +$5 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET May 28 $0 $0 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET May 28 $1 −$1 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 27 $1 $0 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 25? May 25 $21 +$39 +190%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C or higher on May 25? May 25 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET May 25 $20 +$7 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 6°C or below on April 10? Apr 10 $30 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Apr 10 $80 −$79 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Apr 09 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Apr 09 $21 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Apr 09 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Apr 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Apr 09 $19 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Apr 09 $40 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Apr 09 $30 +$4 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 8°C on April 8? Apr 09 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Apr 09 $130 −$130 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 7°C on April 8? Apr 08 $15 +$4 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $182 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 88¢ $60 1h
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes $2 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 88¢ $100 1h
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes $1 2h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes $2 2h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes $10 2h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes $10 2h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes $1 2h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes $1 2h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes $1 2h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes $1 2h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes $0 2h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes $9 2h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes $2 2h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes $1 2h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes $1 2h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes $0 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 99¢ $115 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 72¢ $50 6h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $100 6h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $101 8h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 85¢ $27 15h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 16h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $170 17h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 92¢ $100 18h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 81¢ $101 18h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 65¢ $41 19h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 40¢ $51 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $253.34 · official $253.34 (match) · 224 history records