Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T06:53:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
75 0x7501…2452 sports 38 markets active 2h ago coverage 182d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge
Total PnL −$1,294 (-13%) realized −$1,293 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +40% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +27% what you keep after slip
Net edge+27%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate46%17W / 20L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$258per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$83
14 days+$86
30 days+$81
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% −$1,308
other 10% +$30
crypto 0% −$2
world 0% −$14
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+27.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +159.2% +134.5% 100% 100% +152.4%
≤30d 5 +323.7% +283.3% 60% 60% +48.2%
≤90d 8 +187.2% +159.8% 38% 38% +23.6%
all 37 +40.5% +27.1% 46% 43% -21.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +27.1% 43% -21.5%
10% +14.9% 41% -29.0%
15% +3.8% 41% -35.9%
20% -6.4% 32% -42.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +37% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +40% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +6% → late +73% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$260 vs −$286 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

182d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized−$1,293
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses17 / 20
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)37 / 38
History coverage182d
Avg bet$258
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ITF Maanshan: Jiaqi Wang vs Jiayu Xu Jiaqi Wang 92¢ 90¢ $46 $45 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 23 $28 +$72 +257%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 21 $19 +$11 +61%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $70 −$70 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $5 +$72 +1500%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET May 27 $5 −$5 -94%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 22 $24 −$2 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET May 19 $1 $0 -9%
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 14, 2026? Apr 10 $26 −$14 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Mar 20 $24 +$3 +12%
Spurs vs. Clippers: O/U 234.5 Mar 17 $1 $0 +48%
Will Laura Virginia Fernández Delgado win the 2026 Costa Rican preside Jan 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Cavaliers Jan 10 $225 −$225 -100%
Rangers vs. Bruins Jan 10 $470 −$470 -100%
Will Udinese Calcio win on 2026-01-10? Jan 10 $390 −$390 -100%
Bucks vs. Lakers Jan 10 $480 +$520 +108%
Wild vs. Kraken Jan 09 $354 +$246 +70%
Miami vs. Ole Miss Jan 09 $648 −$648 -100%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-01-07? Jan 08 $280 +$720 +257%
Nuggets vs. Celtics Jan 07 $456 −$456 -100%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-01-07? Jan 07 $300 −$300 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Pacers Jan 07 $670 +$330 +49%
Mavericks vs. Kings Jan 07 $370 −$370 -100%
Hawks vs. Raptors Jan 06 $600 +$400 +67%
Ducks vs. Capitals Jan 05 $440 −$440 -100%
Lions vs. Bears Jan 05 $360 +$640 +178%
Pacers vs. Magic Jan 04 $310 −$310 -100%
Colts vs. Texans Jan 04 $180 −$180 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Heat Jan 04 $285 +$215 +75%
Magic vs. Bulls Jan 03 $75 +$225 +300%
76ers vs. Mavericks Jan 01 $900 −$900 -100%
Nuggets vs. Raptors Jan 01 $290 +$710 +245%
Celtics vs. Jazz Dec 31 $216 +$84 +39%
Suns vs. Wizards Dec 29 $210 −$210 -100%
Raptors vs. Wizards Dec 26 $222 −$222 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Dec 26 $500 −$500 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks Dec 26 $330 +$170 +52%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Dec 25 $9 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ITF Maanshan: Jiaqi Wang vs Jiayu Xu BUY Jiaqi Wang 92¢ $46 1h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 28¢ $28 2d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Colorado Rockies 62¢ $11 4d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Colorado Rockies 62¢ $7 4d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY St. Louis Cardinals 70¢ $50 12d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY St. Louis Cardinals 70¢ $20 12d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates $4 14d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates $1 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $5 28d
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes SELL Canadiens 74¢ $22 34d
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes BUY Canadiens 81¢ $6 34d
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes BUY Canadiens 81¢ $18 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Down 15¢ $1 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Down 15¢ $1 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $0 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $0 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $0 36d
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 14, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $12 75d
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 14, 2026? BUY Yes 52¢ $13 77d
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 14, 2026? BUY Yes 52¢ $13 77d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $2 96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $25 96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $17 96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $7 96d
Spurs vs. Clippers: O/U 234.5 SELL Under 90¢ $1 100d
Spurs vs. Clippers: O/U 234.5 BUY Under 61¢ $1 100d
Will Laura Virginia Fernández Delgado win the 2026 Costa Rican preside BUY No $0 150d
Will Laura Virginia Fernández Delgado win the 2026 Costa Rican preside BUY No $1 150d
Timberwolves vs. Cavaliers BUY Timberwolves 45¢ $225 165d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.75 · official $44.75 (match) · 84 history records