Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T23:50:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
75 0x7503…aa2b sports 189 markets active 1h ago coverage 245d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$10,847 (-2%) realized −$10,706 · open −$141
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate87%164W / 24L
Whale WR89%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,301per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$92est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$599now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$91
7 days+$91
14 days+$157
30 days+$157
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% −$10,241
other 36% −$860
crypto 6% +$3,163
economics 1% −$1,483
world 0% −$1,683
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +6.8% -3.3% 100% 0% -3.4%
≤30d 14 -6.8% -15.7% 86% 14% -8.7%
≤90d 40 -4.1% -13.2% 90% 18% -11.0%
all 188 -4.7% -13.8% 87% 19% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.8% 19% -11.7%
10% ← realistic here -22.0% 6% -20.1%
15% -29.5% 2% -27.8%
20% -36.4% 1% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 89% (≥$2,999) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$215 vs −$2,010 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

245d coverage
Net worth$599
Realized−$10,706
Unrealized−$141
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses164 / 24
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Est. fees paid−$92
Open positions1
Markets (closed)188 / 189
History coverage245d
Avg bet$2,301
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 188 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 0.5 Over 92¢ 74¢ $740 $599 −$141 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 4.5 Jun 25 $702 +$38 +5%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $646 +$54 +8%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $599 +$51 +8%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $137 −$136 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $3,367 +$168 +5%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,127 +$273 +24%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $2,914 +$180 +6%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $2,687 +$227 +8%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,014 −$1,012 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $926 +$89 +10%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $878 +$48 +5%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $805 +$70 +9%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $699 +$101 +14%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $700 +$7 +1%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 19 $1,524 +$177 +12%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 15 $1,701 −$1,690 -99%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Invictus Gaming - Game 1 Winner Apr 15 $1,284 +$240 +19%
LoL: Ultra Prime vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana Apr 15 $2,517 +$33 +1%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Top Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Qu Apr 14 $1,195 +$65 +6%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winner Apr 14 $1,161 +$34 +3%
LoL: Team WE vs Oh My God - Game 2 Winner Apr 14 $1,110 +$51 +5%
LoL: Team WE vs Oh My God - Game 1 Winner Apr 14 $1,047 +$64 +6%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Qual Apr 13 $935 +$112 +12%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-04-12? Apr 13 $889 +$45 +5%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-12? Apr 12 $847 +$42 +5%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-04-10? Apr 11 $831 +$4 +0%
Will Paris FC win on 2026-04-10? Apr 10 $836 +$7 +1%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 10 $784 +$52 +7%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs BNK FEARX - Game 1 Winner Apr 10 $769 +$15 +2%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 10 $746 +$23 +3%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-04-09? Apr 10 $733 +$13 +2%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-04-09? Apr 09 $711 +$22 +3%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Apr 09 $642 +$69 +11%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 1 Winner Apr 09 $568 +$74 +13%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 09 $535 +$33 +6%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 09 $423 −$422 -100%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 1 Winner Apr 09 $938 +$21 +2%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $910 +$28 +3%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $883 +$26 +3%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 02 $866 +$17 +2%
Will Sweden win on 2026-03-26? Mar 27 $294 +$18 +6%
Will Denmark win on 2026-03-26? Mar 27 $553 +$1 +0%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Mar 22 $754 +$94 +12%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Mar 21 $229 +$25 +11%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-21? Mar 21 $229 $0 +0%
LoL: Gen.G vs G2 Esports (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs Mar 21 $14,826 −$14,597 -98%
Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-03-06? Mar 07 $825 −$818 -99%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Mar 07 $726 +$99 +14%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 27 $1,683 −$1,683 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs Feb 22 $513 −$513 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $741 45m
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 95¢ $54 2h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 95¢ $648 2h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $699 2h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 92¢ $646 3h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $599 8d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $36 8d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 79¢ $101 8d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $3,536 8d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $3,367 8d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $1,127 9d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $2,914 9d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 92¢ $2,687 10d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $1,014 10d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $926 11d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $926 11d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 95¢ $878 11d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 92¢ $676 11d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 92¢ $23 11d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 92¢ $106 11d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 87¢ $699 12d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 98¢ $7 12d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 99¢ $693 12d
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend BUY Invictus Gaming 79¢ $1,701 71d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 SELL KT Rolster 100¢ $1,701 71d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY KT Rolster 89¢ $1,524 71d
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Invictus Gaming - Game 1 Winner SELL Invictus Gaming 100¢ $1,524 71d
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Invictus Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Invictus Gaming 84¢ $1,284 71d
LoL: Ultra Prime vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana SELL ThunderTalk Gaming 100¢ $1,284 71d
LoL: Ultra Prime vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana BUY ThunderTalk Gaming 98¢ $1,257 71d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $598.94 · official $598.94 (match) · 450 history records