Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T17:11:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
75 0x7507…fab1 other 59 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$276 (+12%) realized +$247 · open +$29
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate59%22W / 15L
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day17.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$914now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 94% +$303
crypto 4% −$9
sports 2% −$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-18.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -10.0% -18.6% 59% 57% +6.7%
≤30d 37 -10.0% -18.6% 59% 57% +6.7%
≤90d 37 -10.0% -18.6% 59% 57% +6.7%
all 37 -10.0% -18.6% 59% 57% +6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.6% 57% +6.7%
10% -26.4% 43% -3.5%
15% -33.5% 27% -12.9%
20% -40.0% 22% -21.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +18% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$11 · ×1.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.45 per $1 lost it wins $2.45
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$914
Realized+$247
Unrealized+$29
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses22 / 15
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions19
Markets (closed)37 / 59
History coverage6d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day17.5
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 75¢ 87¢ $250 $288 +$38 (+15%)
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 59¢ 66¢ $100 $113 +$13 (+13%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 64¢ 44¢ $100 $70 −$30 (-30%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 76¢ 78¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 81¢ 82¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 81¢ 80¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? No 72¢ 72¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 68¢ 78¢ $25 $29 +$4 (+15%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 13¢ $24 $27 +$3 (+13%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $26 $25 −$1 (-3%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? No 89¢ 96¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+7%)
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 22¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+7%)
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 93¢ 92¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
World Cup: Winless Team? No 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $30 −$19 -62%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $100 +$12 +12%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $112 +$38 +34%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $91 +$48 +52%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 +$26 +51%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $5 +$1 +20%
Netherlands to score first vs. Sweden? Jun 20 $10 +$6 +57%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $40 +$10 +24%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $30 −$2 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 20 $1 +$1 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$1 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +26%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $86 +$9 +11%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 20 $8 −$7 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 20 $4 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 20 $15 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 20 $9 −$3 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Türkiye to score first vs. Paraguay? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $100 +$12 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 20 $11 +$5 +46%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$15 +73%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $51 +$31 +62%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $50 +$15 +29%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 +$29 +57%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$2 +21%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $149 +$78 +52%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $91 +$21 +23%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$48 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 87¢ $50 1h
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 25¢ $11 2h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 89¢ $20 2h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 68¢ $25 2h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND BUY 59¢ $30 2h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $30 2h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 72¢ $30 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $50 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $100 25h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY 63¢ $30 28h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $50 28h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $41 40h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $30 40h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 83¢ $10 40h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 30¢ $0 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 83¢ $5 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 80¢ $40 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 56¢ $29 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $20 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Down 44¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $30 2d
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 64¢ $30 2d
Netherlands to score first vs. Sweden? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $30 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $914.12 · official $938.69 · 135 history records