Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T05:11:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
75 0x7508…2217 other 56 markets active 2h ago coverage 472d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$9 (-1%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate44%24W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% −$13
other 22% $0
sports 8% $0
politics 7% +$1
crypto 5% +$1
finance 4% +$4
tech 4% $0
economics 2% −$1
weather 2% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 8 -0.6% -10.0% 50% 0% -8.5%
≤90d 12 -3.5% -12.6% 33% 0% -11.4%
all 54 -3.1% -12.4% 44% 0% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 0% -10.3%
10% -20.7% 0% -18.9%
15% -28.4% 0% -26.7%
20% -35.4% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 46% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

472d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses24 / 30
Open positions2
Markets (closed)54 / 56
History coverage472d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-3%)
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 26 $5 $0 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 26 $41 +$1 +3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $9 −$1 -14%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 26 $43 +$1 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $44 +$4 +8%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 25 $46 $0 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 24 $83 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $46 −$1 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 23 $33 −$11 -32%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 21 $24 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 20 $19 $0 -2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 19 $57 −$2 -3%
Will Girona FC win on 2025-12-21? Dec 16 $24 $0 +0%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 16 $41 $0 +0%
Will Real Oviedo win on 2025-12-20? Dec 15 $29 $0 +0%
Eagles vs. Commanders Dec 15 $13 $0 +0%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2025-12-20? Dec 15 $14 $0 +0%
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between -1% and -2%? Dec 12 $14 $0 +1%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 27 $12 $0 +0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 26 $2 −$1 -66%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $1 $0 +4%
Will Elon tweet 350 or more times May 30–June 6? Jun 07 $11 +$1 +7%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 Jun 06 $12 $0 -0%
Will Lee Jun-seok win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elect Jun 04 $7 $0 +6%
Will Vlad Voiculescu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 04 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1400 in May? Jun 03 $6 $0 +3%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? May 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 14 $7 $0 +1%
Will Frank McCourt buy TikTok? May 13 $7 $0 +0%
Will Nicușor Dan win by more than 12%? May 11 $3 $0 +4%
Will federal spending decrease by $750b-1t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025 May 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in May? May 11 $14 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? May 10 $14 $0 +0%
Will Malcolm Ranjith be the next pope? May 09 $14 $0 +1%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? May 08 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump impose film tariff by Friday? May 07 $14 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Matt Gaetz in his first 100 days? May 07 $15 $0 +1%
Will Andrew Yang win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City Apr 07 $17 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Apr 07 $17 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60k in April? Apr 04 $17 $0 -0%
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? Apr 04 $17 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on April 30? Apr 03 $17 $0 -0%
Will Google have the top AI model on March 31? Apr 03 $16 $0 +1%
Trump imposes 40% tariff on China in first 100 days? Apr 01 $2 $0 -0%
Trump signs national abortion ban? Mar 31 $1 $0 -2%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by March 31? Mar 31 $17 $0 +1%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? Mar 30 $17 $0 -1%
Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin March 18-24? Mar 25 $17 $0 +3%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 23 $17 $0 +0%
Will the New York Rangers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 22 $17 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $26 2h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $26 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $5 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 27d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 32¢ $3 27d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 27d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL Yes $0 27d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL Yes $1 27d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL Yes $2 27d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY Yes $1 27d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY Yes $2 27d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY Yes $1 27d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $36 28d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $8 28d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $43 28d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $47 28d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $44 28d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 28d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $3 28d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 28d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $2 28d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $0 28d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $0 28d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $43 29d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $43 29d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 88¢ $44 29d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 88¢ $44 29d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL Yes $3 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.31 · official $0.31 (match) · 167 history records