Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:42:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
75 0x7509…1cd2 crypto 989 markets active 0h ago coverage 133d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 132d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$797 (+2%) realized +$826 · open −$29
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate42%415W / 564L
Drawdown94%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day23.0pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$400now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$267
7 days−$304
14 days+$101
30 days+$485
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% +$1,090
other 5% −$38
sports 1% −$55
economics 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 118 +9.7% -0.8% 28% 28% -17.4%
≤30d 452 +7.4% -2.8% 42% 41% -7.0%
≤90d 694 +1.4% -8.3% 41% 40% -8.9%
all 979 -0.2% -9.7% 42% 41% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.7% 41% -9.2%
10% ← realistic here -18.3% 41% -17.9%
15% -26.2% 40% -25.8%
20% -33.5% 39% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$29 · ×1.37 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$400
Realized+$826
Unrealized−$29
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses415 / 564
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions18
Markets (closed)979 / 989
History coverage133d ⚠
Avg bet$36
Trades / day23.0
Drawdown94%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 979 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $86 $86 −$1 (-1%)
Base FDV above $2B one day after launch? Yes 73¢ 66¢ $73 $66 −$7 (-10%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $52 $59 +$6 (+12%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $27 $28 +$0 (+1%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 44¢ 31¢ $35 $25 −$10 (-30%)
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $25 $21 −$4 (-17%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $25 $20 −$5 (-19%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $17 $16 −$1 (-8%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 Over 6¢ 6¢ $12 $13 +$1 (+8%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 11¢ $8 $11 +$2 (+29%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 10¢ $8 $10 +$2 (+29%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Up 9¢ 3¢ $18 $7 −$11 (-62%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $9 $7 −$2 (-27%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+11%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+28%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 482 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 14, 5AM ET Jun 17 $52 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 2, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 30, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 16, 5AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 13, 6AM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 16, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 16, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 1, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 2, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will edgeX launch a token in 2025? Jun 17 $3 +$83 +2374%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $56 −$56 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Over $10M committed to the Gensyn public sale? Jun 17 $19 −$30 -158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 11, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 30, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 1, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Over $3M committed to the Infinex public sale? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 16, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 30, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 1, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $86 −$86 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on December 30? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 16, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 17 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 4? Jun 17 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 17, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 5? Jun 17 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 30, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 16, 4AM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 2, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 17 $71 −$3 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $50 −$48 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 17 $78 +$104 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $19 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $3 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $122 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $19 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $4 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $28 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $6 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $50 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $11 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $10 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $4 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $31 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $20 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $4 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $26 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $26 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $26 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $26 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $26 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $27 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $26 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Up 38¢ $23 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $399.72 · official $396.55 (match) · 3500 history records