Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:58:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
75 0x750c…d430 sports 699 markets active 1h ago coverage 112d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$8,535 (-2%) realized −$6,833 · open −$1,702
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate64%441W / 247L
Whale WR76%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$660per market
Trades / day24.8pace
Fees−$2,165est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$2,826now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$142
7 days−$3,116
14 days+$3,368
30 days−$3,085
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% −$10,338
other 5% −$978
crypto 0% −$849
world 0% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 72 -21.9% -29.3% 43% 42% -20.5%
≤30d 222 -10.9% -19.4% 56% 50% -12.2%
≤90d 625 -5.6% -14.6% 66% 49% -11.7%
all 688 -7.5% -16.3% 64% 47% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.8 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.3% 47% -11.6%
10% -24.3% 33% -20.0%
15% ← realistic here -31.6% 22% -27.8%
20% -38.3% 14% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 76% (≥$611) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$144 vs −$299 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$2,826
Realized−$6,833
Unrealized−$1,702
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses441 / 247
Whale WR (big bets)76%
Est. fees paid−$2,165
Open positions4
Markets (closed)688 / 699
History coverage112d
Avg bet$660
Trades / day24.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 688 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 54¢ 52¢ $2,858 $2,791 −$67 (-2%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Under 51¢ 48¢ $29 $28 −$1 (-5%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Yes 35¢ $60 $6 −$54 (-90%)
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stage Division One 49¢ $1,581 $2 −$1,580 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 163 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $4,516 −$142 -3%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 17 $131 +$32 +25%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $986 −$983 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 −$68 -68%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 17 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $701 +$377 +54%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,186 −$721 -61%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $135 −$106 -78%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $26 −$24 -95%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $664 +$184 +28%
Spread: Portugal (-3.5) Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $152 −$97 -64%
Spread: Austria (-2.5) Jun 17 $15 −$13 -88%
Spread: Austria (-3.5) Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$55 +55%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,005 +$244 +24%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $38 +$49 +130%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $152 +$146 +96%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,507 +$722 +48%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $137 +$209 +152%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 16 $26 −$25 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $60 +$30 +50%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $101 +$60 +59%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $948 −$938 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,214 −$618 -51%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $632 −$627 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 14 $9 −$8 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $858 −$845 -98%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $10 +$8 +82%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $40 +$15 +38%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $697 +$104 +15%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $280 −$2 -1%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $215 −$212 -99%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $157 +$58 +37%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) Jun 14 $37 −$37 -99%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $28 +$9 +32%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $62 −$35 -55%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $111 −$45 -41%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $904 −$462 -51%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $3,027 +$249 +8%
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Team WE (+1.5) Jun 13 $787 −$590 -75%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs KT Rolster (+1.5) Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) Jun 13 $22 −$21 -98%
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs Team WE (+2.5) Jun 13 $131 −$130 -99%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $101 +$26 +25%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) Jun 13 $73 −$3 -4%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 13 $130 −$5 -4%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $179 +$198 +110%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $250 +$77 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $1,194 53m
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $1,014 54m
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $689 55m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $30 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 70¢ $2,830 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $98 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $807 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $2,017 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 35¢ $61 1h
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag BUY Division One 45¢ $62 2h
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag BUY Division One 50¢ $100 2h
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag BUY Division One 46¢ $552 2h
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag BUY Division One 43¢ $25 2h
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag BUY Division One 52¢ $76 2h
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag BUY Division One 52¢ $70 2h
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag BUY Division One 52¢ $1 2h
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag BUY Division One 52¢ $14 2h
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag BUY Division One 52¢ $104 2h
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag BUY Division One 52¢ $26 2h
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag BUY Division One 52¢ $273 2h
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag BUY Division One 52¢ $2 2h
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag BUY Division One 52¢ $4 2h
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag BUY Division One 52¢ $70 2h
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag BUY Division One 52¢ $3 2h
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag BUY Division One 49¢ $203 2h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 70¢ $1,544 2h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $30 2h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $50 2h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $1,513 2h
Spread: England (-2.5) SELL Croatia 100¢ $163 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,826.44 · official $2,826.44 (match) · 2859 history records