Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:01:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
75 0x750d…c7f2 other 372 markets active 2h ago coverage 490d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edgeP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2,760 (+4%) realized +$2,812 · open −$52
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate40%143W / 211L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$173per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 490d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% −$6,424
tech 12% +$48
politics 11% −$1,440
world 7% −$606
crypto 5% +$86
sports 3% −$698
finance 0% −$135
weather 0% +$49
economics 0% −$18
culture 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +1.9% -7.8% 40% 10% -25.7%
≤30d 99 -16.7% -24.7% 47% 8% -21.2%
≤90d 205 -14.3% -22.5% 46% 13% -23.7%
all 354 -5.6% -14.6% 40% 17% -22.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.6% 17% -22.8%
10% -22.8% 13% -30.2%
15% -30.3% 12% -37.0%
20% -37.1% 11% -43.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$64 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

490d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized+$2,812
Unrealized−$52
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses143 / 211
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions12
Markets (closed)354 / 372
History coverage490d
Avg bet$173
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 354 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1,692 +$89 +5%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $26 +$74 +291%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election? Jun 19 $647 −$605 -93%
Will Erika Hilton win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election? Jun 17 $243 −$140 -58%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 51 million views on day 4 Jun 17 $95 +$8 +8%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 47 and 48 million views on day 3 Jun 16 $251 −$139 -55%
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 45 million views on day 3? Jun 16 $437 −$127 -29%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 48 and 49 million views on day 3 Jun 16 $167 −$55 -33%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 45 and 46 million views on day 3 Jun 16 $1,356 +$22 +2%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 46 and 47 million views on day 3 Jun 16 $1,394 −$252 -18%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 16 $100 +$3 +3%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $687 −$687 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 37 and 39 million views on day 2 Jun 15 $1,158 −$1,158 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 37 million views on day 2 Jun 15 $90 +$1 +1%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 43 and 45 million views on day 2 Jun 15 $821 −$821 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 41 and 43 million views on day 2 Jun 15 $912 −$837 -92%
Will MrBeast's next video get 45 million or more views on day 2? Jun 15 $501 −$501 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 3 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $61 −$61 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 39 and 41 million views on day 2 Jun 15 $640 −$407 -64%
100m views on a MrBeast video in the first week by June 30? Jun 15 $3 +$2 +58%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $86 +$14 +16%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $93 +$7 +8%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $98 +$2 +2%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $188 +$12 +6%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $388 +$12 +3%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $400B and $600B at market close Jun 14 $1 $0 -0%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2,244 +$20 +1%
Will Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election Jun 13 $86 +$945 +1102%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1,856 +$4 +0%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $1,490 +$10 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 12 $1,386 +$6 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $32 $0 +0%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $6 +$4 +70%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $413 +$1 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $1,714 +$11 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $509 +$11 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? Jun 12 $592 +$3 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 12 $590 +$10 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? Jun 12 $179 +$1 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $360 $0 +0%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $2,126 +$3 +0%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $681 +$81 +12%
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $237 −$158 -67%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $288 −$79 -27%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 10 $186 +$9 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 97¢ $659 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 94¢ $940 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 93¢ $93 2h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 25¢ $26 3d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election? SELL Yes $2 4d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election? SELL Yes $14 4d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election? SELL Yes $4 4d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election? SELL Yes $2 4d
Will Erika Hilton win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election? SELL Yes $2 5d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 51 million views on day 4 BUY No 96¢ $59 6d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 51 million views on day 4 SELL Yes $1 6d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 49 and 50 million views on day 4 BUY No 13¢ $3 6d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 49 and 50 million views on day 4 BUY No 13¢ $3 6d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 49 and 50 million views on day 4 BUY No 13¢ $5 6d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 51 million views on day 4 BUY Yes $1 6d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 48 and 49 million views on day 4 BUY No 95¢ $29 6d
Will MrBeast's next video get 52 million or more views on day 4? BUY No 99¢ $50 6d
Will MrBeast's next video get 52 million or more views on day 4? BUY No 99¢ $50 6d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 51 and 52 million views on day 4 BUY No 99¢ $50 6d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 51 and 52 million views on day 4 BUY No 99¢ $27 6d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 51 million views on day 4 BUY No 88¢ $6 6d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 51 million views on day 4 BUY No 88¢ $11 6d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 48 and 49 million views on day 4 BUY No 94¢ $19 6d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 48 and 49 million views on day 4 BUY No 96¢ $48 6d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 51 and 52 million views on day 4 BUY No 99¢ $22 6d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 49 and 50 million views on day 4 BUY No 15¢ $3 6d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 51 million views on day 4 BUY No 87¢ $17 6d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 46 and 47 million views on day 3 BUY No 100¢ $13 6d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 46 and 47 million views on day 3 BUY No 100¢ $15 6d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 46 and 47 million views on day 3 BUY No 100¢ $236 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.51 · official $15.51 (match) · 3040 history records