trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +4.9% | -5.1% | 100% | 0% | -5.1% |
| ≤30d | 1 | +4.9% | -5.1% | 100% | 0% | -5.1% |
| ≤90d | 10 | +1.2% | -8.4% | 40% | 0% | -9.5% |
| all | 10 | +1.2% | -8.4% | 40% | 0% | -9.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -8.4% | 0% | -9.5% |
| 10% | -17.2% | 0% | -18.2% |
| 15% | -25.2% | 0% | -26.1% |
| 20% | -32.5% | 0% | -33.3% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on June 15? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $10 | $10 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 15? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $4 | $4 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET | Jun 15 | $2 | $0 | +5% |
| Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C or higher on April 22? | Apr 27 | $14 | $0 | +1% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 1AM ET | Mar 24 | $1 | $0 | +2% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET | Mar 24 | $2 | $0 | +4% |
| Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? | Mar 24 | $875 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Arch Manning be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft? | Mar 24 | $926 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? | Mar 24 | $1,000 | $0 | +0% |
| Will St. John's win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? | Mar 24 | $899 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Chicago Blackhawks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? | Mar 24 | $1,004 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Justin Thomas win the 2026 Masters tournament? | Mar 24 | $995 | $0 | +0% |