Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:07:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
75 0x7511…1e06 sports 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$207 (+35%) realized +$212 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +74% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +51% what you keep after slip
Net edge+51%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate75%3W / 1L
Drawdown69%max
Avg bet$119per market
Trades / day5.7pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$95now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% +$374
crypto 31% −$175
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)+57.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +74.2% +57.6% 75% 75% +33.4%
≤30d 4 +74.2% +57.6% 75% 75% +33.4%
≤90d 4 +74.2% +57.6% 75% 75% +33.4%
all 4 +74.2% +57.6% 75% 75% +33.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +57.6% 75% +33.4%
10% +42.5% 75% +20.7%
15% +28.7% 75% +9.0%
20% +16.1% 50% -1.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 93% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +48% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +74% · $-wt +48% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$126 vs −$175 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.16 per $1 lost it wins $2.16
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$95
Realized+$212
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses3 / 1
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)4 / 5
History coverage2d
Avg bet$119
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown69%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Neither team to score first? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $100 $95 −$5 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $102 +$98 +97%
France vs. Senegal: Neither team to score first? Jun 16 $103 +$25 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $184 −$175 -95%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 +$255 +250%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 7¢ $103 48m
France vs. Senegal: Neither team to score first? SELL Yes 20¢ $122 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $26 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $26 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $27 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $105 17h
France vs. Senegal: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 8¢ $103 18h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $102 18h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $102 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $95.32 · official $95.45 (match) · 11 history records