Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:30:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
75 0x7514…82d1 other 56 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$31 (-2%) realized −$23 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate27%13W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day16.2pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$264now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% −$640
sports 37% +$515
crypto 2% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-22.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 -13.9% -22.1% 27% 24% -17.3%
≤30d 49 -13.9% -22.1% 27% 24% -17.3%
≤90d 49 -13.9% -22.1% 27% 24% -17.3%
all 49 -13.9% -22.1% 27% 24% -17.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.1% 24% -17.3%
10% -29.6% 22% -25.2%
15% -36.4% 22% -32.4%
20% -42.6% 18% -39.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 67% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -39% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$72 vs −$29 · ×2.45 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$264
Realized−$23
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses13 / 36
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions7
Markets (closed)49 / 56
History coverage6d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day16.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $125 $126 +$1 (+0%)
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $35 $34 −$1 (-3%)
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $32 $31 −$1 (-2%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-2%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-11%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Yes 56¢ 32¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 35 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $45 +$26 +57%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? Jun 18 $50 +$8 +16%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $74 −$72 -97%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $52 −$51 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $31 +$82 +267%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 +$8 +40%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$15 +73%
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $36 −$35 -97%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $36 +$114 +318%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $111 −$110 -99%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $88 −$86 -98%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $36 −$35 -98%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $35 +$15 +43%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $41 −$40 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $36 −$35 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $15 +$47 +307%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $15 +$50 +325%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $46 +$513 +1109%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Spain to score first vs. Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 +$45 +221%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $31 −$30 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $15 $0 +1%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $21 −$20 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 13? Jun 12 $12 −$11 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$7 +140%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $61 −$60 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 3m
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 3m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $55 3m
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 47m
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 48m
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 1¢ $6 53m
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $11 53m
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 12¢ $15 59m
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 1h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $16 1h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 75¢ $50 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $26 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $31 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 86¢ $50 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $25 9h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $20 9h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 9h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $15 9h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $26 15h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $16 15h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $15 15h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $25 15h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $20 15h
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 23h
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $15 24h
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 1¢ $21 24h
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $15 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $263.50 · official $262.61 (match) · 112 history records