Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:44:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
75 0x751c…fc37 sports 76 markets active 0h ago coverage 49d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$438 (+4%) realized +$400 · open +$38
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate73%53W / 20L
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$130per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$1,035now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$171
7 days+$400
14 days+$425
30 days+$465
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$445
other 1% +$8
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -0.9% -10.4% 85% 25% -1.8%
≤30d 25 -2.5% -11.8% 84% 20% -2.6%
≤90d 73 +3.4% -6.4% 73% 21% -5.3%
all 73 +3.4% -6.4% 73% 21% -5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.4% 21% -5.3%
10% -15.4% 18% -14.4%
15% -23.6% 15% -22.6%
20% -31.1% 12% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
72% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$8 · ×1.38 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×3.65 per $1 lost it wins $3.65
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$1,035
Realized+$400
Unrealized+$38
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses53 / 20
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions3
Markets (closed)73 / 76
History coverage49d
Avg bet$130
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 73 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 0.5 Over 96¢ 100¢ $495 $515 +$20 (+4%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Over 97¢ 100¢ $500 $515 +$15 (+3%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 57¢ 100¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $475 +$40 +8%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $480 +$35 +7%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $4 +$1 +26%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $490 +$25 +5%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $3 +$2 +57%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $490 +$25 +5%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $500 +$15 +3%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $282 +$27 +10%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $6 +$5 +81%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $480 +$35 +7%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $490 +$25 +5%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $48 +$2 +3%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $359 +$156 +44%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $47 +$1 +3%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $23 +$1 +3%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $500 +$15 +3%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +11%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $490 +$25 +5%
Real Sporting de Gijón vs. UD Almería: O/U 3.5 May 24 $8 $0 +3%
FC Andorra vs. AD Ceuta FC: O/U 1.5 May 24 $354 +$15 +4%
Bolton Wanderers FC vs. Stockport County FC: O/U 2.5 May 24 $490 +$25 +5%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol B win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $0 $0 -62%
Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC: O/U 2.5 May 20 $273 +$8 +3%
AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 1.5 May 19 $137 −$15 -11%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $2 −$2 -98%
FC Barcelona vs. Real Betis Balompié: O/U 3.5 May 18 $400 +$13 +3%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $3 +$2 +67%
Newcastle United FC vs. West Ham United FC: O/U 2.5 May 17 $6 $0 +3%
DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs. Hertha BSC: O/U 4.5 May 17 $300 +$9 +3%
Will RC Deportivo La Coruña win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $2 +$3 +146%
RC Deportivo La Coruña vs. FC Andorra: O/U 1.5 May 17 $13 $0 +3%
RC Deportivo La Coruña vs. FC Andorra: O/U 0.5 May 17 $297 +$12 +4%
UD Almería vs. UD Las Palmas: O/U 1.5 May 16 $200 +$10 +5%
SV Werder Bremen vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 0.5 May 16 $68 +$2 +2%
Will Real Racing Club win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $3 +$2 +54%
Will FC Porto win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $3 +$2 +43%
Will Al Okhdood SC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $1 +$4 +399%
Will UD Almería win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $2 −$2 -98%
FC Porto vs. CD Santa Clara: O/U 0.5 May 16 $270 −$8 -3%
Will SV Werder Bremen win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $1 −$1 -97%
AC Milan vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 3.5 May 10 $33 +$1 +2%
Will AC Milan vs. Atalanta BC end in a draw? May 10 $0 $0 -91%
Parma Calcio 1913 vs. AS Roma: O/U 3.5 May 10 $55 $0 +0%
Will AS Roma win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $0 $0 -88%
Parma Calcio 1913 vs. AS Roma: O/U 2.5 May 10 $55 $0 +1%
Parma Calcio 1913 vs. AS Roma: O/U 1.5 May 10 $24 $0 +2%
Will 1. FC Köln win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $2 $0 -15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 97¢ $500 29m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $3 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 96¢ $495 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $475 20h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $480 23h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 79¢ $4 44h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $490 44h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 97¢ $500 45h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $3 47h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $490 47h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 50¢ $3 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $282 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 52¢ $3 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $3 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $480 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 97¢ $48 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 63¢ $3 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $4 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $490 3d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $359 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 97¢ $23 5d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 97¢ $47 5d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 97¢ $46 5d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 97¢ $32 5d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 97¢ $32 5d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 97¢ $32 5d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 97¢ $131 5d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 97¢ $32 5d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 97¢ $32 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,035.48 · official $1,035.48 (match) · 171 history records