Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:08:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
75 0x751c…ebdc crypto 41 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$287 (-19%) realized −$119 · open −$168
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate65%26W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day18.7pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$318now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 54% −$193
other 33% −$168
tech 13% +$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -1.9% -11.3% 65% 58% -25.1%
≤30d 40 -1.9% -11.3% 65% 58% -25.1%
≤90d 40 -1.9% -11.3% 65% 58% -25.1%
all 40 -1.9% -11.3% 65% 58% -25.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 58% -25.1%
10% -19.8% 42% -32.3%
15% -27.5% 30% -38.8%
20% -34.6% 25% -44.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$25 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$318
Realized−$119
Unrealized−$168
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses26 / 14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)40 / 41
History coverage6d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day18.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $487 $318 −$168 (-35%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 17 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$4 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $32 +$35 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 17 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 17 $58 +$10 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$7 +131%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 15 $135 −$98 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $79 −$75 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$23 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $103 +$28 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$12 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$7 +62%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $192 +$23 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 12 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Up 39¢ $5 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $26 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Down 42¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET SELL Up 42¢ $10 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $5 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Down 21¢ $67 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $27 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $5 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $27 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Down 40¢ $5 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Up 20¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Up 20¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Up 20¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Up 20¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Up 20¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Up 20¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Up 20¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Up 20¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Up 20¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Up 20¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Up 20¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Up 20¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Up 20¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Up 20¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Up 20¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Up 20¢ $3 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $318.34 · official $318.34 (match) · 120 history records