Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:44:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
75 0x751d…6a14 crypto 592 markets active 2h ago coverage 162d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$156 (+1%) realized +$157 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate93%547W / 44L
Drawdown99%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day7.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$163now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$75
7 days+$132
14 days+$109
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 59% +$20
tech 19% +$37
other 10% +$119
finance 8% −$57
world 4% +$29
sports 0% +$7
economics 0% $0
politics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +11.4% +0.8% 100% 53% +0.8%
≤30d 100 -1.1% -10.6% 90% 15% -9.5%
≤90d 269 +0.6% -8.9% 92% 11% -8.1%
all 591 +1.7% -8.0% 93% 8% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 8% -8.9%
10% -16.8% 2% -17.6%
15% -24.8% 1% -25.6%
20% -32.2% 1% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$19 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

162d coverage
Net worth$163
Realized+$157
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses547 / 44
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)591 / 592
History coverage162d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day7.1
Drawdown99%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 591 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? No 91¢ 90¢ $164 $163 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $146 +$19 +13%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $129 +$16 +12%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $114 +$17 +14%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 20 $107 +$7 +7%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $91 +$9 +10%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $40 +$8 +20%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $42 +$8 +20%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $46 +$4 +8%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $28 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $10 $0 +4%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $67 +$6 +10%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $62 +$5 +7%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $54 +$6 +11%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 +$7 +14%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $45 +$4 +8%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $40 +$6 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $17 +$3 +16%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $36 +$1 +2%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $33 +$3 +10%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $63 +$1 +1%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $30 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? Jun 13 $29 +$1 +4%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 11? Jun 11 $10 $0 +3%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $420 on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $410 on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $720 on June 11? Jun 11 $8 +$1 +8%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $295 on June 11? Jun 11 $14 −$14 -100%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 10? Jun 10 $10 $0 +5%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $210 on June 10? Jun 10 $13 $0 +1%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $370 on June 10? Jun 10 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $27 +$1 +3%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on June 9? Jun 10 $38 +$2 +6%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $29 +$1 +2%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on June 8? Jun 09 $4 $0 +4%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $375 on June 8? Jun 09 $10 $0 +1%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on June 8? Jun 09 $22 +$1 +5%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $18 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 7? Jun 07 $48 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 6? Jun 07 $53 +$5 +9%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 5? Jun 06 $74 −$74 -100%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $760 on June 5? Jun 06 $10 $0 +1%
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on June 5? Jun 06 $11 +$2 +18%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $420 on June 5? Jun 06 $29 +$1 +5%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $310 on June 5? Jun 05 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $126 +$4 +3%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $440 on June 4? Jun 05 $5 $0 +7%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $410 on June 4? Jun 05 $12 $0 +2%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $760 on June 4? Jun 05 $102 +$3 +3%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $370 on June 4? Jun 04 $23 −$16 -69%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 91¢ $164 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 100¢ $165 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 88¢ $146 15h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 89¢ $129 21h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 87¢ $114 28h
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) SELL Netherlands 100¢ $114 28h
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 93¢ $107 41h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 91¢ $91 41h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 83¢ $40 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 83¢ $42 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 86¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 18? SELL Down 100¢ $10 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 86¢ $17 3d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 92¢ $46 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 18? BUY Down 96¢ $10 3d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 91¢ $67 4d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 93¢ $62 4d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 90¢ $54 4d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 87¢ $50 4d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 92¢ $18 5d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 93¢ $28 5d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 87¢ $40 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? SELL Down 100¢ $20 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 85¢ $8 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 87¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 87¢ $7 5d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 98¢ $36 6d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 91¢ $33 6d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 98¢ $32 7d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 94¢ $30 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $162.90 · official $162.90 (match) · 1570 history records