Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T12:45:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

75
0x7523…4c4c
other · 81 markets active 2d ago
0.0score
−$171,912 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$177,659 · open +$5,747
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$371,424
Realized−$177,659
Unrealized+$5,747
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses54 / 23
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$4,979
Open positions41
Markets (closed)77 / 81
History coverage77d
Avg bet$50,313
Trades / day43.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%
Chart Positions 41 History 77 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5,007
7 days−$5,005
14 days−$294,821
30 days−$181,419
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? No 99¢ 99¢ $309,695 $310,284 +$589 (+0%)
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote? No 59¢ 74¢ $26,139 $32,667 +$6,527 (+25%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? No 56¢ 52¢ $14,000 $12,875 −$1,125 (-8%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 86¢ 82¢ $12,323 $11,814 −$509 (-4%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? No 88¢ 98¢ $1,368 $1,518 +$150 (+11%)
Will Jose Mourinho be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? Yes 98¢ 100¢ $977 $997 +$20 (+2%)
Will Mauricio Pochettino be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? No 100¢ 100¢ $564 $566 +$2 (+0%)
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $401 $402 +$1 (+0%)
Will the Referendum on the Civilian Service Act be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote? No 30¢ 47¢ $185 $292 +$106 (+57%)
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 1¢ 28¢ $0 $3 +$3 (+3576%)
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 1¢ 18¢ $0 $2 +$2 (+2240%)
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 1¢ 12¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+1571%)
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 1¢ 4¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+468%)
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 1¢ 3¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+361%)
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 1¢ 3¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+348%)
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+221%)
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+186%)
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+174%)
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+134%)
Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+27%)
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+27%)
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+14%)
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Jun 12 $1 −$1,782 -128689%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Jun 12 $1 −$1,875 -135476%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Jun 12 $850 −$1,350 -159%
Makarska: Completed Match: Lucie Havlickova vs Yasmine Kabbaj Jun 08 $24 +$2 +8%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $189,000 −$189,000 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Completed Match: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnald Jun 03 $22 +$3 +12%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 03 $297,008 +$3,000 +1%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 03 $2,154 +$2,334 +108%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider Jun 03 $3,177 −$3,177 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 03 $39,500 +$10,500 +27%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 03 $297,352 +$42,007 +14%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $33,000 −$33,000 -100%
Birmingham: Jacob Fearnley vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 02 $6,189 −$6,148 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 01 $40,049 −$40,000 -100%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $284,040 +$19,006 +7%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $118,440 +$1,560 +1%
UEFA Champions League: Unbeaten Champion May 31 $368 +$1 +0%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $57,735 −$57,000 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Martin Landaluce May 30 $40,000 −$40,000 -100%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 30 $4,067 +$99 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28? May 29 $38,000 +$2,000 +5%
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 28 $13,043 +$555 +4%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 28 $149,550 $0 +0%
Will Zinedine Zidane be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? May 27 $3,356 +$3 +0%
Roland Garros ATP: Valentin Royer vs Novak Djokovic May 27 $36 −$35 -97%
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 27 $55,464 +$2,933 +5%
Roland Garros ATP: Ugo Humbert vs Adrian Mannarino May 25 $11,893 +$605 +5%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 23 $107,600 +$131,900 +123%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 21 $24,963 +$514 +2%
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? May 21 $14,645 +$429 +3%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? May 21 $14,048 +$258 +2%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 20 $18,400 +$1,600 +9%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? May 20 $64 −$58 -90%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? May 20 $34,533 −$34,533 -100%
Will Jose Mourinho be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? May 18 $977 +$20 +2%
Will Mauricio Pochettino be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? May 18 $564 +$2 +0%
Will Sweden be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $924 +$1,214 +131%
Will Finland win the first Eurovision Semi-Final? May 17 $100 $0 +0%
Will Bulgaria win the second Eurovision Semi-Final? May 17 $117 +$6 +5%
Will Cyprus win the second Eurovision Semi-Final? May 17 $204 +$5 +2%
Will Ukraine win the second Eurovision Semi-Final? May 17 $635 +$82 +13%
Will Israel win the first Eurovision Semi-Final? May 17 $1,020 +$2 +0%
Will France be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $1,061 +$221 +21%
Will Moldova win the first Eurovision Semi-Final? May 17 $1,575 +$2 +0%
Will Israel be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $4,188 +$2,149 +51%
Will Bulgaria win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 17 $54,005 +$54 +0%
Will Australia be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 16 $538 −$526 -98%
Will Israel win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 16 $3,204 −$3,204 -100%
Will Albania advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? May 15 $1,127 +$231 +20%
Will Latvia advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? May 15 $1,943 +$1,046 +54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 58% +$257,538
sports 19% −$411,870
other 10% −$22,359
politics 8% +$7,695
economics 6% +$2,091
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 99¢ $96,608 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 99¢ $264 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 99¢ $662 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 99¢ $264 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 99¢ $8 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 99¢ $6 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 99¢ $8 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 99¢ $0 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 99¢ $211,875 2d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 63¢ $27,205 8d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 63¢ $8 8d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 63¢ $33 8d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 63¢ $95 8d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 63¢ $106 8d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 63¢ $16 8d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 63¢ $20,160 8d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 63¢ $49 8d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 63¢ $16 8d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 63¢ $33 8d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 63¢ $8 8d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 63¢ $83 8d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 63¢ $83 8d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 63¢ $49 8d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 63¢ $16 8d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 63¢ $58 8d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 63¢ $25 8d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 63¢ $107 8d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 63¢ $16 8d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 63¢ $567 8d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 63¢ $42 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +8.0% -2.3% 100% 0% -2.3%
≤30d 54 -15.2% -23.2% 70% 24% -17.4%
≤90d 77 -5.1% -14.1% 70% 22% -13.8%
all 77 -5.1% -14.1% 70% 22% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover43.0 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.1% 22% -13.8%
10% -22.3% 10% -22.1%
15% ← realistic here -29.8% 9% -29.6%
20% -36.7% 9% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $371,424.10 · official $371,424.10 (match) · 3500 history records