Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:56:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
75 0x7525…fd3c crypto 80 markets active 17h ago coverage 7d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 7d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (475 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$10,906 (-162%) realized −$10,623 · open −$283
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip
Net edge-50%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate24%19W / 61L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$84per market
Trades / day475.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$850now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 86% −$2,667
other 14% −$283
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (475 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-41.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 -19.9% -27.5% 29% 20% -47.4%
≤30d 80 -35.5% -41.7% 24% 18% -45.5%
≤90d 80 -35.5% -41.7% 24% 18% -45.5%
all 80 -35.5% -41.7% 24% 18% -45.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover475.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -41.7% 18% -45.5%
10% ← realistic here -47.2% 14% -50.7%
15% -52.3% 14% -55.5%
20% -57.0% 10% -59.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -40% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -36% · $-wt -40% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -56% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
42.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$115 vs −$79 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$850
Realized−$10,623
Unrealized−$283
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses19 / 61
Open positions1
Markets (closed)80 / 80
History coverage7d ⚠
Avg bet$84
Trades / day475.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 80 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1,133 $850 −$283 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $34 −$33 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 17 $15 +$6 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 16 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 16 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $12 +$6 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $71 −$71 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $76 −$76 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $76 −$76 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $76 −$76 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 13 $11 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 13 $76 −$76 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 13 $8 +$106 +1329%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 12 $11 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 12 $76 −$76 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 12 $76 −$76 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 12 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 12 $76 −$76 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 12 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 12 $76 −$76 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 12 $76 −$76 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 12 $123 −$123 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 12 $76 −$76 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 12 $76 −$76 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 12 $76 −$76 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 12 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 12 $76 −$76 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 12 $26 +$118 +445%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 12 $26 +$99 +374%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 12 $34 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 12 $66 +$5 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 12 $50 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 12 $49 +$6 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 12 $67 +$121 +180%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 11 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 11 $76 −$76 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 11 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 11 $76 −$76 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 11 $76 −$76 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 11 $76 −$76 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 11 $76 −$76 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $0 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $0 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $0 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $3 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $26 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $15 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $7 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $0 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $0 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $0 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $0 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $0 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $0 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $0 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $0 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $0 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $0 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $0 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $0 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $0 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $0 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $0 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $0 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $0 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $4 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $0 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $849.94 · official $849.94 (match) · 3500 history records