Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T22:28:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
75 0x7527…20ff other 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 303d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$4 (+1%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate36%13W / 23L
Drawdown59%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% +$2
other 24% +$1
politics 12% +$2
crypto 9% $0
economics 8% +$1
sports 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.3% -9.3% 50% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 11 -0.9% -10.3% 36% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 11 -0.9% -10.3% 36% 0% -9.2%
all 36 -1.4% -10.8% 36% 6% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 6% -9.1%
10% -19.4% 3% -17.8%
15% -27.1% 0% -25.7%
20% -34.3% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.09 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.81 per $1 lost it wins $1.81
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

303d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses13 / 23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)36 / 36
History coverage303d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown59%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 36 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? Jun 25 $39 $0 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 24 $85 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 14 $38 +$1 +2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 03 $39 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 01 $2 $0 -14%
Will Alberta join the US? May 31 $39 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 30 $38 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 30 $38 +$1 +4%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 29 $42 $0 -1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 28 $37 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $37 $0 -0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Jan 31 $12 −$2 -16%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Dec 29 $12 $0 +2%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Dec 27 $7 $0 +3%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Dec 12 $15 $0 +1%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Dec 12 $13 +$3 +25%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 26 $3 −$1 -30%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 25 $11 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $14 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $12 +$1 +12%
Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 04 $1 $0 -26%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Oct 02 $15 $0 -1%
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31? Sep 21 $1 $0 -2%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 21 $26 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 21 $13 $0 +0%
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? Sep 19 $26 +$1 +2%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 10 $26 $0 -0%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 09 $27 $0 +0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 02 $2 $0 -10%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Aug 29 $32 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? Aug 28 $36 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 28 $6 $0 +0%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2025 US Open? Aug 27 $5 $0 -2%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Aug 27 $8 $0 -0%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 27 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125K in August? Aug 26 $36 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $39 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $39 3h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $43 46h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $42 47h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $9 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $34 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $42 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $6 22d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $33 22d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $11 22d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $28 22d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 24d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 24d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 25d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 25d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $8 26d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $31 26d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $38 26d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 56¢ $39 26d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 54¢ $3 26d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 54¢ $5 26d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 54¢ $30 26d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $41 26d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $42 27d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 76¢ $14 27d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 76¢ $25 27d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 74¢ $31 28d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 74¢ $7 28d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $37 28d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $37 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 130 history records