Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:27:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
75 0x7528…4e36 sports 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 93d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$7,861 (+9%) realized +$6,934 · open +$927
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate55%12W / 10L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown63%max
Avg bet$2,412per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$949est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$13,880now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4,638
7 days+$3,488
14 days+$3,488
30 days+$5,493
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% +$1,277
other 49% +$9,788
politics 0% −$248
finance 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +12.1% +1.5% 50% 40% +2.0%
≤30d 13 +7.7% -2.5% 54% 38% +3.5%
≤90d 19 +17.1% +5.9% 53% 42% +4.3%
all 22 +17.2% +6.1% 55% 41% +3.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +6.1% 41% +3.9%
10% ← realistic here -4.1% 41% -6.1%
15% -13.4% 41% -15.1%
20% -21.9% 41% -23.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$3,153) neutral
Persistence
early +17% → late +17% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
6.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,839 vs −$1,217 · ×1.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.81 per $1 lost it wins $1.81
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$13,880
Realized+$6,934
Unrealized+$927
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses12 / 10
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$949
Open positions4
Markets (closed)22 / 37
History coverage93d
Avg bet$2,412
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown63%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 61¢ 56¢ $4,784 $4,384 −$400 (-8%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 58¢ 78¢ $3,000 $4,060 +$1,060 (+35%)
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? Yes 73¢ 76¢ $3,139 $3,246 +$108 (+3%)
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 76¢ $2,030 $2,190 +$160 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $3,716 −$229 -6%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A Jun 17 $1,021 +$2,451 +240%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $3,250 +$3,416 +105%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $1,024 −$1,000 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $3,218 −$3,153 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $3,039 −$3,000 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $3,048 +$3,335 +109%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $3,037 +$2,048 +67%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $5,369 +$301 +6%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $700 −$682 -97%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $5,873 +$4,127 +70%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 0.5 May 30 $2,635 +$228 +9%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 May 29 $2,387 −$2,350 -98%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 29 $2,187 −$322 -15%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 3.5 Apr 29 $2,437 +$2,107 +86%
DeepSeek V4 released by April 30? Apr 28 $2,741 +$1,380 +50%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $16,856 −$293 -2%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 14 $2,135 −$896 -42%
Will Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30? Apr 10 $1,837 +$2,670 +145%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Mar 18 $3 +$3 +108%
Will Trump visit China by March 31? Mar 18 $404 −$248 -61%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Mar 17 $10 +$1 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $3,038 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 53¢ $3,486 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $3,716 3h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? AND Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-0 BUY $103 12h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in BUY $206 12h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AN BUY 11¢ $616 12h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in BUY $309 12h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $1,024 17h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $3,250 20h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? AND Will Argentina vs. Algeria BUY $1,029 37h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A BUY 29¢ $1,021 37h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY $1,029 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND BUY 12¢ $1,026 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 32¢ $3,218 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? AND Will Sweden vs. Tunisia BUY $309 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a dra BUY $515 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY $1,027 3d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $3,039 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-1 BUY 54¢ $3,041 4d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $3,037 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $3,048 5d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 48¢ $5,670 6d
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 11¢ $700 6d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $5,369 6d
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 61¢ $2,777 9d
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 60¢ $2,064 9d
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 70¢ $2,048 9d
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? BUY Yes 73¢ $3,164 14d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 58¢ $5,873 19d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $2,387 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13,880.05 · official $13,980.04 (match) · 371 history records