Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T19:04:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
75 0x7529…e24f other 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 17d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$69 (+7%) realized +$70 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate42%5W / 7L
Drawdown66%max
Avg bet$73per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$181now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$124
7 days−$0
14 days+$52
30 days+$63
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$22
sports 29% +$85
crypto 19% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-44.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -58.9% -62.9% 33% 22% -9.5%
≤30d 12 -38.5% -44.4% 42% 33% -2.1%
≤90d 12 -38.5% -44.4% 42% 33% -2.1%
all 12 -38.5% -44.4% 42% 33% -2.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -44.4% 33% -2.1%
10% -49.7% 25% -11.5%
15% -54.5% 25% -20.0%
20% -59.0% 17% -27.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 74% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -39% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +23% → late -100% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$19 · ×2.05 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.47 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$181
Realized+$70
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses5 / 7
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)12 / 13
History coverage17d
Avg bet$73
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $182 $181 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 24 $99 −$99 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $176 +$29 +16%
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? Jun 23 $164 +$12 +7%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $182 +$83 +46%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $101 +$62 +61%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Knicks lead the 2026 NBA Finals 2-1 through 3 games? Jun 09 $10 +$11 +107%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 90¢ $182 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 26h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 97¢ $205 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $176 2d
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? SELL Yes 88¢ $176 2d
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY Yes 81¢ $164 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $99 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $182 5d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 5d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 9d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 9d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 11d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? SELL Yes 100¢ $162 11d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 14d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 14d
Will Knicks lead the 2026 NBA Finals 2-1 through 3 games? SELL Yes 99¢ $21 16d
Will Knicks lead the 2026 NBA Finals 2-1 through 3 games? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $180.87 · official $180.87 (match) · 25 history records