Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:15:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
75 0x752b…8a6e crypto 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 96d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$198 (+3%) realized +$198 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate93%14W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$415per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$370
7 days−$370
14 days−$370
30 days−$370
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% +$169
sports 6% −$381
politics 6% +$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -31.5% -38.0% 67% 0% -38.3%
≤30d 3 -31.5% -38.0% 67% 0% -38.3%
≤90d 15 -3.6% -12.7% 93% 0% -12.0%
all 15 -3.6% -12.7% 93% 0% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 0% -12.0%
10% -21.1% 0% -20.5%
15% -28.7% 0% -28.1%
20% -35.7% 0% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 28% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$380 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized+$198
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses14 / 1
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)15 / 16
History coverage96d
Avg bet$415
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Under 20¢ 20¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 29 $391 −$380 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 29 $389 +$2 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 29 $380 +$9 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET May 11 $535 +$23 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET May 11 $520 +$14 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET May 11 $508 +$13 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET May 10 $481 +$28 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET May 10 $475 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET May 10 $471 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET May 05 $450 +$22 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET May 05 $427 +$23 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET May 05 $415 +$12 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET May 04 $407 +$8 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET May 04 $401 +$8 +2%
Will Trump visit China by June 30? May 02 $378 +$27 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 20¢ $11 1h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $10 1h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 71¢ $391 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $389 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $380 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $535 49d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $520 49d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $508 49d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $481 50d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $475 50d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $471 50d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $450 55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $427 55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $415 55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $407 56d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $401 56d
Will Trump visit China by June 30? SELL Yes 94¢ $404 58d
Will Trump visit China by June 30? BUY Yes 88¢ $378 95d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.99 · official $9.99 (match) · 33 history records