Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T10:19:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
75 0x752d…a2d1 other 94 markets active 2h ago coverage 90d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$67 (-0%) realized −$67 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate9%8W / 84L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$188per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$146now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% −$12
politics 20% −$4
sports 9% −$51
economics 3% −$1
world 2% $0
tech 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 12 -0.1% -9.7% 17% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 91 -8.2% -16.9% 9% 3% -9.9%
all 92 -8.1% -16.8% 9% 3% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.8% 3% -9.9%
10% -24.8% 2% -18.5%
15% -32.1% 1% -26.4%
20% -38.7% 1% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 76% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -16% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×2.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$146
Realized−$67
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses8 / 84
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)92 / 94
History coverage90d
Avg bet$188
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 92 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $78 $78 −$0 (-0%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $68 $68 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $36 $0 -0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $23 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $35 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $24 $0 -0%
Will BIG win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 06 $34 $0 -1%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $26 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 05 $44 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 05 $89 $0 +0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $218 $0 -0%
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 27 $66 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $221 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 21 $39 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? May 19 $32 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 16 $178 $0 -0%
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 15 $177 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 14 $174 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 08 $177 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $186 $0 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $180 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $553 −$1 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $342 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $343 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $359 $0 -0%
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 02 $182 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $564 −$1 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $181 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $353 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $556 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 19 $363 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $548 −$1 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 17 $179 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $327 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $395 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $355 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $186 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 14 $185 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $347 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 13 $172 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $365 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $399 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 12 $180 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 12 $183 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 12 $338 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $171 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 10 $543 −$1 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 10 $371 $0 -0%
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 10 $373 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 09 $186 $0 -0%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 09 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $36 1h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $36 5h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $68 25h
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $23 5d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $23 6d
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? BUY No 100¢ $78 7d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $35 7d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $35 7d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $24 12d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $24 13d
Will BIG win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 99¢ $34 14d
Will BIG win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 100¢ $34 14d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $26 14d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $26 14d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $25 22d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $25 22d
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $41 23d
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $41 23d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? BUY No 100¢ $44 23d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $41 25d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $41 25d
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $25 28d
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $25 28d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $39 29d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $39 29d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 100¢ $32 31d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $32 31d
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $89 32d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $177 34d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $178 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $146.22 · official $146.22 (match) · 272 history records