Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T11:51:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
75 0x752e…b1b3 other 97 markets active 1h ago coverage 663d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$7,897 (+4%) realized +$8,001 · open −$104
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate44%36W / 46L
Whale WR68%big bets
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$2,063per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$173est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$591now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$187
7 days+$206
14 days−$642
30 days−$1,284
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% −$1,527
politics 35% +$2,952
sports 4% +$4,808
crypto 1% +$788
finance 0% +$163
world 0% +$930
culture 0% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)+9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -11.8% -20.2% 35% 30% -3.4%
≤30d 58 +27.8% +15.6% 38% 36% -17.7%
≤90d 70 +29.2% +16.9% 41% 40% +8.9%
all 82 +21.0% +9.5% 44% 37% -5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +9.5% 37% -5.7%
10% ← realistic here -1.0% 33% -14.7%
15% -10.6% 30% -22.9%
20% -19.3% 27% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 68% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +40% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$573 vs −$272 · ×2.11 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.65 per $1 lost it wins $1.65
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

663d coverage
Net worth$591
Realized+$8,001
Unrealized−$104
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses36 / 46
Whale WR (big bets)68%
Est. fees paid−$173
Open positions10
Markets (closed)82 / 97
History coverage663d
Avg bet$2,063
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 82 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 23¢ 23¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 21¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 6¢ $118 $69 −$49 (-42%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $100 $67 −$33 (-33%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 9¢ 9¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-3%)
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 3 Japan? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $42 $42 −$0 (-0%)
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 3 Japan? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $40 $36 −$4 (-10%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $25 $20 −$6 (-22%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $20 $12 −$8 (-38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 45 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $51 +$63 +124%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $203 −$200 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $101 +$58 +57%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $205 −$200 -98%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 25 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $303 +$168 +56%
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Jun 24 $41 −$40 -97%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 24 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $102 −$100 -98%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $133 +$867 +650%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $115 −$114 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $402 +$5 +1%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $203 +$241 +119%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $405 +$239 +59%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $206 −$201 -97%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $201 +$65 +32%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $444 +$185 +42%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $205 −$200 -97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $205 −$200 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $127 −$125 -98%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $803 +$96 +12%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $51 +$44 +86%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $202 +$126 +62%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $152 −$150 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $203 −$200 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $204 +$352 +172%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $113 −$110 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $519 −$512 -99%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $103 −$100 -97%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $203 +$148 +73%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $41 +$459 +1116%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $806 −$800 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $609 +$291 +48%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $95 +$105 +109%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,925 −$1,920 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $107 +$825 +770%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $32 −$31 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,002 −$37 -4%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $303 +$173 +57%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $102 +$424 +414%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Germany (-1.5) AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? AND Wil BUY 12¢ $50 58m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $102 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $102 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 9¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 1¢ $21 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 1¢ $21 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 2¢ $25 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 2¢ $17 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY 44¢ $50 8h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 14¢ $51 34h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 34h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $51 34h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 25¢ $102 35h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 18¢ $102 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY 46¢ $50 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 42¢ $203 2d
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $102 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 24¢ $205 3d
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $102 4d
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $41 4d
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $102 4d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 28¢ $102 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY 64¢ $303 5d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Uzbekistan 57¢ $115 5d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 82¢ $408 5d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $133 5d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 5¢ $31 6d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 13¢ $93 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $590.88 · official $692.70 · 277 history records