Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:39:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
75 0x7532…c6fc crypto 416 markets active 2h ago coverage 242d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$13,355 (+6%) realized +$14,092 · open −$737
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate57%232W / 174L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$571per market
Trades / day11.1pace
Fees−$56est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$4,712now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,528
7 days+$5,594
14 days+$5,948
30 days+$10,149
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 69% +$7,384
crypto 19% +$6,557
other 8% +$1,101
sports 1% −$438
politics 1% −$485
finance 1% −$536
economics 0% −$85
weather 0% −$66
tech 0% +$27
culture 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +45.5% +31.6% 52% 44% +6.3%
≤30d 32 +39.8% +26.4% 62% 47% +8.1%
≤90d 67 +17.8% +6.6% 60% 43% -4.6%
all 406 +0.9% -8.7% 57% 45% -3.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.1 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.7% 45% -3.9%
10% ← realistic here -17.4% 29% -13.1%
15% -25.4% 17% -21.5%
20% -32.7% 13% -29.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$170 vs −$146 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.56 per $1 lost it wins $1.56
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

242d coverage
Net worth$4,712
Realized+$14,092
Unrealized−$737
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses232 / 174
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$56
Open positions10
Markets (closed)406 / 416
History coverage242d
Avg bet$571
Trades / day11.1
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 406 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 22¢ 18¢ $1,555 $1,225 −$329 (-21%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 77¢ 78¢ $1,155 $1,162 +$8 (+1%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? No 80¢ 91¢ $603 $688 +$85 (+14%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? No 46¢ 72¢ $346 $541 +$195 (+56%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 54¢ 60¢ $324 $357 +$33 (+10%)
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 15? No 53¢ 62¢ $230 $273 +$43 (+19%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 12¢ 3¢ $950 $227 −$722 (-76%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 16¢ 12¢ $142 $114 −$28 (-20%)
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 15¢ 14¢ $75 $68 −$8 (-10%)
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $69 $56 −$13 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 21 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 21 $44 −$44 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 21 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 21 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 21 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on May 7? Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $60 +$59 +98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $19 +$81 +414%
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $55 −$55 -100%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 20 $446 +$70 +16%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 19 $4,116 +$2,527 +61%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $3,600 +$290 +8%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $42 +$147 +351%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $86 −$86 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $52 +$48 +93%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $9 +$80 +870%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $6,107 +$227 +4%
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $229 +$294 +128%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $13,998 +$1,695 +12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $2,771 +$436 +16%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $29 +$71 +250%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $57 −$57 -99%
Will Gold (GC) settle at <$3,800 in June? Jun 15 $95 −$80 -85%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $8 +$1 +9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 12 $510 +$23 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $375 +$45 +12%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $858 +$285 +33%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $5,372 +$3,134 +58%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $4,454 +$523 +12%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $8,512 +$544 +6%
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 May 4-10? May 10 $247 −$244 -99%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 10 $1,275 +$131 +10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 10 $4,736 −$3,092 -65%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 22 $13,900 +$2,853 +20%
Will XRP reach $1.60 in April? Apr 21 $237 −$6 -2%
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30? Apr 20 $324 +$12 +4%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Apr 17 $3,535 +$425 +12%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 17 $2,736 −$198 -7%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 16 $3,240 +$524 +16%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Apr 14 $440 −$100 -23%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 12 $363 +$184 +51%
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10? Apr 11 $285 +$154 +54%
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30? Apr 11 $662 −$50 -8%
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026? Apr 11 $431 +$21 +5%
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 14, 2026? Apr 10 $406 +$368 +91%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Apr 08 $17 +$3 +16%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? Apr 08 $430 +$56 +13%
Will BNB reach $1500 by December 31, 2026? Apr 08 $773 +$66 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 15? BUY No 53¢ $230 1h
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 15¢ $75 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 77¢ $1,155 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 19¢ $19 22h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 85¢ $169 23h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 84¢ $165 23h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 51¢ $180 23h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $42 25h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $20 27h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 27h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 11¢ $14 28h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 54¢ $324 28h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 13¢ $69 28h
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY No 9¢ $55 28h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 92¢ $516 28h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $30 36h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 36h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 36h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $930 46h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 92¢ $920 46h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 92¢ $920 46h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $455 46h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $455 46h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $910 46h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 92¢ $52 46h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 92¢ $5 46h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 92¢ $5 46h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 92¢ $9 46h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 92¢ $6 46h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 92¢ $6 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,711.64 · official $4,711.64 (match) · 2864 history records