Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:44:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
75 0x7533…a5fb crypto 131 markets active 1d ago coverage 45d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$70 (-7%) realized −$70 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate42%55W / 76L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% −$109
other 6% +$33
world 2% −$9
finance 1% $0
tech 1% $0
culture 1% −$6
sports 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +42.9% +29.3% 36% 36% -11.2%
≤30d 14 +42.9% +29.3% 36% 36% -11.2%
≤90d 131 -6.9% -15.8% 42% 40% -18.7%
all 131 -6.9% -15.8% 42% 40% -18.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.8% 40% -18.7%
10% -23.9% 37% -26.4%
15% -31.2% 35% -33.5%
20% -38.0% 31% -40.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +36% → late -49% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$7 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

45d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$70
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses55 / 76
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)131 / 131
History coverage45d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 131 Trades
no open positions (33 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$6 +116%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $5 +$1 +13%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +20%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 11 $11 −$10 -94%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 11 $2 +$27 +1310%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET May 17 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET May 17 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET May 17 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET May 17 $53 −$8 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET May 17 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET May 17 $26 −$25 -97%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET May 17 $14 +$83 +602%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET May 16 $18 +$33 +184%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $5 +$1 +20%
Will Greece be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $15 +$14 +91%
Will Bitcoin reach $83,000 on May 14? May 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 3? May 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET May 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET May 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET May 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 8 May 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET May 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET May 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET May 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET May 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET May 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET May 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET May 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET May 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET May 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 3? May 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET May 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET May 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET May 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET May 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET May 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET May 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET May 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $5 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $11 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 29h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $6 29h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 4d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 4d
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 4d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $1 4d
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) BUY Switzerland 35¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $5 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY Yes 83¢ $5 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $2 6d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $26 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $5 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $27 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $5 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Down 32¢ $40 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $5 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 288 history records