Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T00:16:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
75 0x7536…17fc sports 111 markets active 1h ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,442 (-5%) realized −$1,443 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate70%75W / 32L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$240per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$248est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$191now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$418
7 days−$1,643
14 days−$1,233
30 days−$1,661
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% −$2,403
other 5% +$421
world 0% +$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -20.0% -27.6% 53% 47% -43.1%
≤30d 45 -1.0% -10.5% 64% 53% -16.1%
≤90d 103 -3.9% -13.1% 69% 60% -14.5%
all 107 -2.5% -11.7% 70% 62% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 62% -14.0%
10% -20.2% 46% -22.2%
15% -27.9% 27% -29.7%
20% -35.0% 15% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$74 vs −$234 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$191
Realized−$1,443
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses75 / 32
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$248
Open positions1
Markets (closed)107 / 111
History coverage104d
Avg bet$240
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 107 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Over 72¢ 72¢ $190 $191 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $50 −$49 -99%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $326 −$320 -98%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $321 +$55 +17%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $242 +$78 +32%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $128 +$115 +89%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $270 −$136 -50%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $162 −$160 -98%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $1 −$1 -99%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $31 −$30 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 AND United States vs. Australia: O/U 1 Jun 20 $10 +$6 +57%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 AND Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 0 Jun 20 $12 +$3 +26%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $19 +$18 +93%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $37 −$36 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $99 −$80 -81%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 AND Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $83 +$15 +18%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $78 +$6 +7%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $38 +$40 +105%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1,651 −$1,622 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $809 +$456 +56%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $585 +$615 +105%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $333 +$253 +76%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $301 +$32 +11%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $224 +$77 +34%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $334 −$329 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $1,087 −$1,087 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $252 +$82 +33%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $920 +$89 +10%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $857 +$63 +7%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1,110 −$648 -58%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $202 +$122 +60%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $273 +$151 +55%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $654 +$170 +26%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $557 +$81 +15%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $202 +$72 +36%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $419 +$487 +116%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $309 +$111 +36%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $197 +$112 +57%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $236 −$39 -17%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $241 −$4 -2%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $499 −$258 -52%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $456 +$43 +10%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $320 +$135 +42%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $318 +$3 +1%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $240 +$77 +32%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 1.5 May 27 $575 −$428 -74%
Villarreal CF vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 2.5 May 24 $501 +$37 +7%
Villarreal CF vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 5.5 May 24 $501 +$49 +10%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $100 +$15 +15%
Getafe CF vs. CA Osasuna: O/U 0.5 May 23 $402 +$92 +23%
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 1.5 May 20 $353 +$120 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $192 58m
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 58¢ $50 2h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 41¢ $326 4h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $376 5h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 85¢ $321 6h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $242 22h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $242 22h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $128 24h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 27¢ $128 24h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 55¢ $270 27h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $162 32h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY 35¢ $0 2d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY 51¢ $4 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 1.5 AND Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 BUY 67¢ $50 2d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $1 3d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 38¢ $31 3d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 AND United States vs. Australia: O/U 1 SELL 94¢ $16 3d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 AND Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 0 SELL 94¢ $15 3d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 AND United States vs. Australia: O/U 1 BUY 59¢ $10 4d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 AND Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 0 BUY 74¢ $12 4d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 AND United States vs. Australia: O/U 1 BUY 58¢ $0 4d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 35¢ $37 4d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $37 5d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $19 5d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 13¢ $19 5d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $99 5d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 AND Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 0.5 BUY 84¢ $83 6d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 48¢ $84 6d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 43¢ $78 6d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $78 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $191.32 · official $120.07 · 239 history records