Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:48:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
75 0x7536…57d6 crypto 512 markets active 0h ago coverage 12d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (286 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,302 (-11%) realized −$1,302 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -41% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -55% what you keep after slip
Net edge-55%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate33%254W / 517L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day285.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 12d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$631
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (286 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-46.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 640 -48.2% -53.1% 25% 24% -41.2%
≤30d 771 -41.2% -46.8% 33% 31% -34.0%
≤90d 771 -41.2% -46.8% 33% 31% -34.0%
all 771 -41.2% -46.8% 33% 31% -34.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover285.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -46.8% 31% -34.0%
10% ← realistic here -51.9% 22% -40.4%
15% -56.6% 18% -46.1%
20% -60.8% 16% -51.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -41% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -63% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$15 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,302
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses254 / 517
Open positions0
Markets (closed)771 / 512
History coverage12d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day285.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 771 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Up 30¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Up 21¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Up 8¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Up 62¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Down 40¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $39 $0 −$39 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Down 30¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Up 26¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Down 40¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $45 $0 −$45 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Up 62¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Down 30¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Up 40¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Up 30¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Up 30¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Up 30¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Up 4¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Up 7¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Up 20¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Up 38¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Down 20¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Up 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Up 23¢ 0¢ $70 $0 −$70 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Up 30¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$3 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $71 −$71 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 2PM ET Jun 15 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $2 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $8 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $2 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $2 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $8 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $8 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $4 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $11 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $0 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $5 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $7 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $1 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $3 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $3 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $12 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET SELL Down 45¢ $22 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $15 37m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records