Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T01:54:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
75 0x753d…2ce0 sports 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (117 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$2,747 (+11%) realized +$2,747 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate45%9W / 11L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$1,267per market
Trades / day117.0pace
Fees−$773est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% −$182
world 5% +$2,404
other 1% +$54
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (117 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -5.4% -14.4% 45% 20% +1.0%
≤30d 20 -5.4% -14.4% 45% 20% +1.0%
≤90d 20 -5.4% -14.4% 45% 20% +1.0%
all 20 -5.4% -14.4% 45% 20% +1.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover117.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.4% 20% +1.0%
10% -22.6% 10% -8.7%
15% ← realistic here -30.1% 5% -17.5%
20% -37.0% 5% -25.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 81% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$2,501) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -24% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$382 vs −$106 · ×3.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.96 per $1 lost it wins $2.96
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2,747
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses9 / 11
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$773
Open positions0
Markets (closed)20 / 20
History coverage2d
Avg bet$1,267
Trades / day117.0
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 20 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $110 −$87 -80%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $1,015 −$4 -0%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 28 $1,255 −$155 -12%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $79 +$1 +1%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $2,012 −$85 -4%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $200 +$54 +27%
Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $1,000 +$21 +2%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $50 +$5 +11%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $1,251 +$2,404 +192%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $2,601 −$226 -9%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 4.5 Jun 27 $2,501 +$376 +15%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $75 −$38 -50%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $3,752 +$338 +9%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $2 $0 +6%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $147 −$11 -8%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $2,501 +$237 +10%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $517 −$54 -10%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $3,041 −$233 -8%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $2,851 −$227 -8%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $378 −$41 -11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 17¢ $18 30m
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 85¢ $94 31m
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 14¢ $4 31m
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 50¢ $15 31m
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $100 42m
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $400 42m
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $300 42m
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $14 42m
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $2 42m
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $104 42m
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $70 42m
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $9 42m
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under $1 43m
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 99¢ $30 43m
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 99¢ $971 43m
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under $2 43m
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under $0 43m
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 23¢ $12 1h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 23¢ $806 1h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 24¢ $14 1h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 27¢ $881 1h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 27¢ $6 1h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 26¢ $75 1h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 27¢ $18 1h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 27¢ $18 1h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 57¢ $11 1h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $12 1h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 53¢ $58 2h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 53¢ $26 2h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 53¢ $19 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 248 history records