Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:11:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
75 0x7541…76f0 other 259 markets active 5h ago coverage 32d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$71 (-12%) realized −$65 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate35%65W / 119L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day27.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$100now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$37
14 days−$70
30 days−$71
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% −$11
sports 32% −$42
world 16% −$18
crypto 12% −$6
finance 1% $0
economics 1% −$1
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-26.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 122 -20.0% -27.6% 35% 31% -22.7%
≤30d 183 -19.3% -27.0% 36% 29% -26.8%
≤90d 184 -19.2% -26.9% 35% 29% -26.7%
all 184 -19.2% -26.9% 35% 29% -26.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.9% 29% -26.7%
10% ← realistic here -33.9% 18% -33.7%
15% -40.3% 12% -40.1%
20% -46.2% 7% -46.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$100
Realized−$65
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses65 / 119
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions74
Markets (closed)184 / 259
History coverage32d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day27.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 74 History 184 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $18 $16 −$2 (-12%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Sweden? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Sweden? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-4%)
Will Netherlands reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 38¢ 38¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Yes 75¢ 74¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Sweden? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-5%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-7%)
Will Netherlands reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 24¢ 20¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-16%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 57¢ 57¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $2 $2 −$1 (-22%)
Will Netherlands reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-11%)
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 61¢ 60¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 44¢ 44¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 56¢ 52¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 77¢ 84¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+8%)
Will Japan reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 25¢ 20¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-17%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 19¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+7%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 46¢ 44¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 18¢ 12¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-32%)
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 77¢ 68¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 76¢ 68¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-11%)
Will Portugal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 32¢ 30¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 76¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 83¢ 86¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 42 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $1 $0 +40%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $1 $0 -4%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1 +$1 +49%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $6 +$17 +292%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $10 −$7 -76%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -49%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $3 −$1 -48%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $2 +$1 +34%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $1 $0 +10%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $1 $0 +13%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 20 $3 −$2 -53%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 3 Paraguay? Jun 20 $1 $0 -21%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $1 −$1 -51%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 20 $1 $0 -32%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Draw at halftime? Jun 20 $1 $0 -6%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $1 $0 -8%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $2 +$1 +36%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $2 +$2 +77%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $2 $0 -26%
Brazil leading at halftime? Jun 20 $1 $0 -1%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $3 $0 -2%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $1 $0 -16%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $2 $0 +5%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $1 −$1 -49%
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $3 −$1 -23%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $4 −$1 -23%
Morocco to score first vs. Scotland? Jun 19 $1 $0 -4%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $2 $0 +20%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $1 −$1 -75%
United States to score first vs. Australia? Jun 19 $1 +$1 +51%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 $0 -33%
United States to win the second half? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $1 $0 +32%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 $0 -6%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $2 −$1 -45%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $1 −$1 -68%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $2 −$1 -52%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $1 −$1 -91%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $2 $0 +24%
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $1 +$1 +89%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $2 −$1 -25%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 7.5 Jun 19 $10 +$1 +8%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $3 −$2 -63%
Spread: Canada (-5.5) Jun 18 $5 −$5 -99%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $1 $0 -26%
Spread: Canada (-4.5) Jun 18 $1 −$1 -57%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $3 −$1 -33%
Korea Republic to score first vs. Mexico? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -53%
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $1 −$1 -52%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $2 −$2 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 5h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 5h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 5h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 5h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 5h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands O/U 1.5 BUY Over 58¢ $1 5h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 SELL Over 66¢ $1 5h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 BUY Over 67¢ $1 5h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 5h
Will Netherlands reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 6h
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 6h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 6h
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? SELL Yes 100¢ $23 6h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 6h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 2 Paraguay? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 6h
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 6h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 99¢ $2 6h
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 55¢ $1 6h
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 6h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 6h
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 6h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 6h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 6h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 2 Paraguay? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 6h
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 6h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 2.5 SELL Under 92¢ $1 6h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score SELL No 34¢ $1 6h
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 6h
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 6h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $100.32 · official $94.30 · 901 history records