Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:27:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
75 0x7544…aa31 other 254 markets active 2h ago coverage 136d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$82 (-0%) realized −$82 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%11W / 243L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$226per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$18
14 days−$28
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% −$36
sports 26% −$27
economics 9% −$8
politics 8% −$7
culture 7% −$8
crypto 6% −$6
world 3% −$2
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 68 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 179 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 254 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 71% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$82
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses11 / 243
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)254 / 254
History coverage136d
Avg bet$226
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 254 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 20 $265 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 20 $56 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 19 $409 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 19 $441 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $320 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $160 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $457 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $155 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $245 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 18 $807 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $449 −$1 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $58 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $504 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $545 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $347 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $817 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 16 $302 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $649 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $281 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $470 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $711 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $371 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $153 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $261 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $510 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $173 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $462 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $331 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $60 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $430 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $88 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $124 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 12 $176 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $154 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $281 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $1,061 −$2 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $62 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $173 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $135 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $216 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $365 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $244 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $211 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $358 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $782 −$2 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $615 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $401 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $417 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 04 $647 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $144 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $56 2h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $56 3h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $56 5h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $56 7h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $56 8h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $56 10h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $56 11h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $56 12h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $56 15h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $56 16h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $56 24h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $56 25h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $57 27h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $57 29h
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $57 30h
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $57 31h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $57 42h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $57 44h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $57 46h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $57 2d
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $57 2d
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $57 2d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $57 2d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $57 2d
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $57 2d
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $57 2d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $57 2d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $57 2d
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $57 2d
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $58 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1403 history records