Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:02:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

75
0x7544…ea2d
crypto · 16 markets active 6h ago
2.0score
−$300 -22%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$299 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
Net worth$128
Realized−$299
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses7 / 8
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)15 / 16
History coverage122d
Avg bet$85
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%
Chart Positions 1 History 15 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$101
7 days+$101
14 days−$47
30 days−$237
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Over 43¢ 42¢ $130 $128 −$2 (-1%)
NEC vs. Go Ahead Eagles: O/U 3.5 Over 75¢ $192 $0 −$192 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Down 76¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Paderborn win on 2026-05-25? Yes 57¢ $99 $0 −$99 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Up 48¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Over 44¢ $145 $0 −$145 (-100%)
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 Over 53¢ $148 $0 −$148 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $184 +$246 +134%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $148 −$145 -98%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 May 30 $150 −$148 -99%
Will Paderborn win on 2026-05-25? May 25 $100 −$99 -99%
NEC vs. Go Ahead Eagles: O/U 3.5 May 17 $194 −$192 -99%
Manchester United FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 3.5 May 17 $135 +$59 +43%
Manchester United FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 2.5 May 17 $93 +$42 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Feb 10 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Feb 09 $49 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Feb 09 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Feb 09 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Feb 09 $10 +$6 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Feb 09 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Feb 09 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Feb 09 $62 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 76% −$140
crypto 17% −$62
other 7% −$99
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $132 5h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $184 13h
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $148 25h
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $150 12d
Will Paderborn win on 2026-05-25? BUY Yes 57¢ $100 17d
NEC vs. Go Ahead Eagles: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 75¢ $194 25d
Manchester United FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $194 25d
Manchester United FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 69¢ $135 26d
Manchester United FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $135 26d
Manchester United FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 68¢ $93 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $49 122d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $49 122d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $49 122d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $20 122d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 122d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 122d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $10 122d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $16 122d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 122d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 122d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $10 122d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $21 122d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $20 122d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $62 122d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $62 122d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-34.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +17.0% +5.9% 50% 50% +18.2%
≤30d 7 -25.3% -32.4% 43% 43% -31.1%
≤90d 7 -25.3% -32.4% 43% 43% -31.1%
all 15 -27.6% -34.5% 47% 27% -31.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.5% 27% -31.6%
10% -40.8% 27% -38.1%
15% -46.5% 27% -44.1%
20% -51.8% 13% -49.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $128.49 · official $128.49 (match) · 27 history records