Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:48:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
75 0x7545…04fc other 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 21d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$187 (-33%) realized −$171 · open −$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$82per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit14%portable
Net worth$179now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 21d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 90% −$223
sports 10% +$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-19.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +11.3% +0.7% 50% 50% +0.1%
≤30d 5 -11.0% -19.4% 40% 40% -54.4%
≤90d 5 -11.0% -19.4% 40% 40% -54.4%
all 5 -11.0% -19.4% 40% 40% -54.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.4% 40% -54.4%
10% -27.1% 40% -58.8%
15% -34.2% 40% -62.7%
20% -40.6% 20% -66.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -50% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -50% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$78 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$179
Realized−$171
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)5 / 7
History coverage21d
Avg bet$82
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit14%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $94 $91 −$3 (-4%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $100 $87 −$12 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $21 +$26 +121%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $56 +$25 +45%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $72 −$15 -21%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $18 −$18 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $204 −$200 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $47 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 41¢ $21 2h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 44¢ $82 2h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $56 3h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $57 3h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $97 26h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 23¢ $8 4d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 4d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $72 5d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $103 5d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 40¢ $204 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $178.51 · official $178.63 (match) · 16 history records