Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:05:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
75 0x7545…c0ce crypto 155 markets active 5d ago coverage 115d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized −$13 · open +$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate57%82W / 61L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$150now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 60% −$10
other 20% −$9
tech 7% +$21
politics 7% $0
sports 2% +$7
world 2% −$28
finance 1% +$15
culture 1% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-4.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +35.9% +22.9% 100% 100% +22.9%
≤30d 1 +35.9% +22.9% 100% 100% +22.9%
≤90d 16 -11.9% -20.3% 56% 56% -34.7%
all 143 +5.6% -4.5% 57% 37% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.5% 37% -10.8%
10% -13.6% 27% -19.4%
15% -21.9% 20% -27.2%
20% -29.6% 14% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$150
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$16
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses82 / 61
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions12
Markets (closed)143 / 155
History coverage115d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 143 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027? No 38¢ 53¢ $50 $69 +$19 (+39%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $15 $17 +$2 (+15%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+32%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $15 $12 −$3 (-18%)
Will Kristi Noem leave the Trump administration before 2027? No 49¢ 46¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Yes 45¢ 38¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-17%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-24%)
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? No 14¢ 19¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+36%)
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes 17¢ 10¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-44%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes 10¢ 4¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-56%)
Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026? No 25¢ 4¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-84%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$4 +36%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $11 +$7 +62%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 16 $5 +$5 +92%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $41 −$40 -99%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 07 $5 +$2 +43%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 26 $15 +$4 +26%
Will Austria come in last place at Eurovision 2026? Apr 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will John Ternus be the next CEO of Apple? Apr 21 $3 +$2 +92%
Will Anthropic provide Mythos to the US government by June 30, 2026? Apr 20 $25 −$24 -97%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-13? Apr 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-07? Apr 09 $20 +$17 +86%
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31? Apr 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Any of the stolen KitKats recovered by April 5? Apr 07 $18 +$2 +14%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-20? Mar 22 $10 −$10 -100%
AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 2.5 Mar 22 $10 +$6 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Mar 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Mar 19 $10 −$4 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Mar 19 $21 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Mar 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-18? Mar 19 $10 +$6 +59%
Will Man City win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Miguel Lopez get engaged on Love is Blind: Ohio? Mar 16 $1 +$4 +234%
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $10 +$7 +67%
Will I Lied to You - Sinners win Best Original Song at the 98th Academ Mar 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Mar 11 $7 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Mar 11 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Mar 11 $10 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Mar 11 $10 +$2 +25%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Mar 08 $5 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Mar 08 $7 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Mar 07 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Mar 07 $6 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Mar 07 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Mar 07 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Mar 07 $30 +$8 +28%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March? Mar 06 $5 +$10 +185%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of March? Mar 06 $8 +$5 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Mar 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Mar 04 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Mar 04 $15 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Mar 04 $5 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Mar 04 $10 +$5 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Mar 02 $10 −$2 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Mar 02 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Mar 02 $5 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Mar 02 $15 +$3 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Mar 02 $2 $0 +10%
Will Apple announce the iPhone 17e by March 15? Mar 02 $18 +$2 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 5d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 5d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $15 5d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $15 5d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 45¢ $10 5d
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 5d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $10 5d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 61¢ $11 32d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL Yes 83¢ $10 33d
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $21 35d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 41d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 42¢ $7 42d
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? BUY No 14¢ $5 49d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 53d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? SELL Yes 88¢ $19 53d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $15 57d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY Yes 43¢ $5 58d
Will Austria come in last place at Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 58d
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $20 58d
Will Anthropic provide Mythos to the US government by June 30, 2026? BUY No 24¢ $25 58d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-13? BUY Yes 57¢ $15 65d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-07? BUY Yes 53¢ $20 71d
Any of the stolen KitKats recovered by April 5? BUY No 88¢ $18 77d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Up 8¢ $1 91d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 91d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $4 91d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $1 91d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $1 91d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 91d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Down 20¢ $1 91d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $150.37 · official $151.01 (match) · 517 history records