Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:38:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

75
0x7546…1293
crypto · 679 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$20 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$4 · open −$15
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$176
Realized−$4
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses489 / 179
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions11
Markets (closed)668 / 679
History coverage446d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%
Chart Positions 11 History 668 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$27
14 days+$79
30 days+$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
DAX (DAX) Up or Down on June 12? Up 99¢ 80¢ $75 $61 −$14 (-19%)
Will Ted Cruz post 120-139 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? No 98¢ 99¢ $49 $50 +$1 (+1%)
Will Jotham Stein advance from the CA-16 primary election? No 97¢ 98¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Ted Cruz post 100-119 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $345 on June 12? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on June 12? Yes 97¢ 97¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will Khamenei post 15-19 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
FTSE 100 (UKX) Up or Down on June 12? Up 92¢ 55¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-41%)
Will Zelenskyy post 40-59 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 77¢ 96¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+25%)
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 97¢ 96¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Toby Doeden win the 2026 South Dakota Governor Republican primary election? Yes 61¢ 52¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $63 +$4 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $16 +$1 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $60 +$1 +2%
Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $6 −$3 -49%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $18 +$1 +3%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $12 $0 +1%
Will Zelenskyy post 100-119 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $51 +$2 +3%
Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $198 +$24 +12%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $2 $0 +6%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $87 on June 11? Jun 11 $14 −$4 -32%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $400 on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +2%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 11? Jun 11 $7 −$2 -34%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on June 11? Jun 11 $10 $0 +3%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $390 on June 11? Jun 11 $15 −$10 -67%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $91 on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $720 on June 11? Jun 11 $8 $0 +3%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $89 on June 11? Jun 11 $7 +$1 +11%
DAX (DAX) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $12 +$1 +8%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on June 11? Jun 11 $15 −$2 -16%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $300 on June 11? Jun 11 $25 $0 +1%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 -4%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $725 on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 -34%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $91 on June 10? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -99%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $725 on June 10? Jun 10 $3 $0 +10%
Will Zelenskyy post 120-139 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $12 $0 +2%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +5%
Will Meta (META) close above $580 on June 10? Jun 10 $20 $0 +1%
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $240 on June 10? Jun 10 $30 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $205 on June 10? Jun 10 $10 $0 +1%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $400 on June 10? Jun 10 $4 +$1 +34%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on June 10? Jun 10 $5 $0 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $16 +$5 +29%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $36 $0 +1%
Will Enayat Nazhat advance from the CA-07 primary election? Jun 10 $4 $0 +1%
Will Tyler Vandenberg advance from the CA-06 primary election? Jun 10 $10 $0 +1%
Will Martha Guerrero advance from the CA-06 primary election? Jun 10 $10 $0 +1%
Will Lisa Ramirez advance from the CA-40 primary election? Jun 10 $5 $0 +1%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 9? Jun 09 $10 $0 +1%
Will Meta (META) close above $600 on June 9? Jun 09 $10 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $210 on June 9? Jun 09 $10 $0 +1%
Will Ted Cruz post 140-159 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 9? Jun 09 $4 $0 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $14 $0 +2%
Will Khamenei post 10-14 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $23 $0 +1%
DAX (DAX) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 09 $17 $0 +2%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on June 8? Jun 08 $5 $0 +4%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $89 on June 8? Jun 08 $5 $0 +2%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $93 on June 8? Jun 08 $8 $0 +1%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $305 on June 8? Jun 08 $7 $0 +5%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on June 8? Jun 08 $6 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 41% −$72
crypto 16% −$13
finance 15% −$9
politics 15% +$72
tech 7% −$7
sports 4% +$9
world 2% −$5
culture 1% +$6
weather 0% +$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on June 12? BUY Yes 97¢ $5 28m
DAX (DAX) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Up 99¢ $45 36m
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $20 42m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $17 44m
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $40 44m
Will Zelenskyy post 40-59 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $2 57m
DAX (DAX) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Up 99¢ $30 1h
Will Ted Cruz post 100-119 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $20 1h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $51 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 62¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $50 1h
Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $3 2h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $1 2h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $5 2h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $20 2h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $10 2h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $6 2h
FTSE 100 (UKX) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Up 92¢ $4 2h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 49¢ $1 2h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 12? SELL Up 100¢ $12 3h
Will Ted Cruz post 120-139 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $49 3h
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $345 on June 12? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 3h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 12? BUY Up 99¢ $12 3h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 67¢ $2 3h
Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 29¢ $1 3h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 4h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $39 4h
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $2 5h
Will Zelenskyy post 100-119 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $33 8h
Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $20 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 91 -2.7% -11.9% 88% 11% -7.4%
≤30d 275 -2.3% -11.6% 81% 12% -9.1%
≤90d 501 -4.4% -13.5% 76% 16% -9.7%
all 668 -2.9% -12.1% 73% 21% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 21% -9.6%
10% -20.5% 11% -18.3%
15% -28.2% 6% -26.2%
20% -35.3% 4% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $175.67 · official $175.67 (match) · 2226 history records