Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:07:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
75 0x7548…3f81 politics 50 markets active 2h ago coverage 206d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate2%1W / 49L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$295per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 44% −$7
other 29% −$3
sports 19% −$2
crypto 4% $0
economics 2% $0
culture 2% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 22 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 50 -0.1% -9.6% 2% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$0 · ×11.19 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

206d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)2%
Wins / losses1 / 49
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)50 / 50
History coverage206d
Avg bet$295
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 50 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 26 $569 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $282 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $282 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $283 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $283 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $283 $0 -0%
Trump out as President by May 31? May 17 $283 $0 +0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 14 $283 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 10 $284 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $284 $0 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $284 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $285 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $286 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $286 $0 +0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $285 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 13 $285 $0 +0%
Will Aaron Rai win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 10 $286 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 08 $286 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 07 $286 $0 +0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 05 $287 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 03 $287 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 31 $287 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 28 $287 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 25 $287 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Mar 23 $288 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 22 $288 $0 -0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Mar 20 $288 $0 +0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 18 $288 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 17 $288 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 14 $288 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Mar 11 $288 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in March? Mar 10 $288 $0 +0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 08 $565 −$1 -0%
Will Sophia Chikirou win the Paris mayor election? Mar 07 $290 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 04 $281 −$1 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 02 $282 $0 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Mar 02 $281 $0 +0%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 01 $279 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 27 $280 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 27 $278 −$1 -0%
Will OpenSea be accused of insider trading? Feb 26 $280 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 25 $275 $0 -0%
Will Celta Vigo win the 2025–26 La Liga? Feb 07 $280 $0 -0%
Will West Ham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 07 $280 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 06 $278 $0 +0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 09 $279 $0 -0%
Will Levante win the 2025–26 La Liga? Dec 08 $278 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 08 $275 −$1 -0%
Will Mallorca win the 2025–26 La Liga? Dec 06 $279 $0 -0%
Will Bad Bunny be the top Spotify artist for 2025? Dec 03 $273 +$4 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $282 1h
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $282 13h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $282 5d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $282 6d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $282 7d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $282 7d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $283 22d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $283 22d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $283 30d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $184 31d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $1 31d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $13 31d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $68 31d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $18 31d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $283 38d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $283 39d
Trump out as President by May 31? SELL No 100¢ $283 40d
Trump out as President by May 31? BUY No 100¢ $283 40d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $283 43d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $9 44d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $44 44d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $87 44d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $53 44d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $53 44d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $35 44d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $283 47d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $284 48d
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $284 50d
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $284 50d
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $284 53d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 241 history records