Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:21:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
75 0x7552…3d52 sports 1034 markets active 2h ago coverage 97d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,309 (-1%) realized −$1,317 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate81%832W / 198L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$117per market
Trades / day20.9pace
Fees−$311est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$265now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$331
7 days−$278
14 days−$555
30 days−$411
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% −$1,548
other 11% −$74
tech 1% +$30
weather 1% +$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -7.9% -16.7% 69% 52% -29.6%
≤30d 265 -4.7% -13.8% 76% 44% -14.1%
≤90d 961 -1.7% -11.0% 80% 27% -10.7%
all 1030 -2.0% -11.3% 81% 26% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.3% 26% -10.7%
10% ← realistic here -19.8% 8% -19.2%
15% -27.6% 2% -27.0%
20% -34.7% 1% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$44 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$265
Realized−$1,317
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses832 / 198
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$311
Open positions4
Markets (closed)1030 / 1034
History coverage97d
Avg bet$117
Trades / day20.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 1030 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 94¢ 98¢ $188 $195 +$8 (+4%)
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 Over 86¢ 86¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 74¢ 74¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Over 83¢ 82¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Jun 23 $295 −$173 -59%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $20 +$1 +7%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $20 +$6 +30%
Chicago Sky vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 166.5 Jun 23 $5 +$1 +29%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $10 +$1 +11%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $20 +$2 +12%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $10 −$3 -26%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $20 +$7 +32%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $20 +$7 +34%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $50 −$39 -78%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $50 −$50 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $20 +$2 +12%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $20 +$7 +36%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $90 +$6 +6%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $20 −$7 -33%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $100 +$3 +3%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $10 +$3 +29%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $20 +$7 +34%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $40 −$11 -28%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $10 +$3 +26%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $20 +$4 +20%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $20 +$4 +21%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $20 +$7 +34%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $20 +$5 +24%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $20 +$1 +6%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $20 +$2 +9%
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky: O/U 168.5 Jun 18 $25 +$1 +4%
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 159.5 Jun 18 $10 +$1 +11%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $30 +$8 +26%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $10 +$3 +34%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $15 +$1 +7%
Fortaleza EC vs. América FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 −$8 -39%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $10 +$7 +70%
Fortaleza EC vs. América FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $20 +$3 +14%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $30 +$6 +20%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $10 +$3 +29%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $10 +$4 +40%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $20 +$6 +27%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $50 +$5 +11%
Will Criciúma EC win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$9 -85%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $10 +$3 +32%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $60 +$7 +12%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $30 −$11 -37%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $20 +$3 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 83¢ $20 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 86¢ $30 1h
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY Yes 74¢ $20 1h
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap SELL Yes 24¢ $27 1h
Chicago Sky vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 166.5 BUY Under 77¢ $5 8h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 90¢ $10 8h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $22 8h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $20 9h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $10 9h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 55¢ $7 9h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $10 28h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $20 28h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 73¢ $10 32h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 89¢ $20 32h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $20 32h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 64¢ $20 33h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 34¢ $11 33h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 89¢ $30 34h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 72¢ $20 34h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $10 39h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 89¢ $20 39h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 54¢ $13 39h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 79¢ $20 40h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 73¢ $20 46h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $10 46h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 89¢ $50 46h
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap BUY Yes 78¢ $50 46h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 99¢ $66 46h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 97¢ $100 2d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $13 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $265.23 · official $265.23 (match) · 2538 history records