Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T01:54:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
75 0x7552…d758 crypto 27 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$205 (-16%) realized −$204 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate48%12W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day5.8pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$111now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 48% −$112
sports 26% −$65
other 26% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-31.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -24.5% -31.7% 48% 44% -27.0%
≤30d 25 -24.5% -31.7% 48% 44% -27.0%
≤90d 25 -24.5% -31.7% 48% 44% -27.0%
all 25 -24.5% -31.7% 48% 44% -27.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.7% 44% -27.0%
10% -38.2% 36% -34.0%
15% -44.2% 36% -40.4%
20% -49.7% 12% -46.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$32 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$111
Realized−$204
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses12 / 13
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)25 / 27
History coverage5d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day5.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Jordan vs. Argentina: Argentina O/U 1.5 Over 79¢ 78¢ $112 $111 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $111 −$111 -100%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $106 +$53 +50%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $95 +$8 +8%
France to score first vs. Iraq? Jun 22 $100 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 22 $20 −$19 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 22 $122 +$25 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 22 $146 −$145 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 22 $72 +$34 +48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 22 $51 +$18 +36%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $20 +$9 +46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 22 $11 −$11 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 22 $71 +$9 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 22 $10 +$8 +73%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 22 $10 +$5 +47%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 22 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -95%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 22 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 22 $10 +$9 +86%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 22 $20 +$9 +46%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 22 $10 +$6 +58%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -94%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $25 −$13 -50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Jordan vs. Argentina: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $113 1h
Panama vs. England: O/U 1.5 AND Will England win on 2026-06-27? AND En BUY 77¢ $45 5h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $111 4d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $51 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $106 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $103 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 92¢ $95 5d
France to score first vs. Iraq? SELL Yes 88¢ $99 5d
France to score first vs. Iraq? BUY Yes 89¢ $100 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Down 6¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $20 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $146 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $122 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $72 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $51 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $11 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $71 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $10 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $10 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $5 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $31 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $20 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $10 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $5 5d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 26¢ $13 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $111.29 · official $111.29 (match) · 51 history records