Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:06:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

75 0x7555…7822 crypto 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover

Total PnL −$110 (-3%) realized +$395 · open −$505

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip

Net edge-36%after slip

Net WR56%break-even

Win rate56%5W / 4L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$349per market

Trades / day23.0pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit67%portable

Net worth$3,343now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +56%

net ROI/market (all)-24.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	9	-16.5%	-24.4%	56%	56%	-23.1%
≤30d	9	-16.5%	-24.4%	56%	56%	-23.1%
≤90d	9	-16.5%	-24.4%	56%	56%	-23.1%
all	9	-16.5%	-24.4%	56%	56%	-23.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover23.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-24.4%	56%	-23.1%
10% ← realistic here	-31.7%	44%	-30.4%
15%	-38.3%	33%	-37.1%
20%	-44.3%	22%	-43.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 33% · top 2 59% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -16% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$14 vs −$27 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.65 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$3,343

Realized+$395

Unrealized−$505

Win rate (resolved)56%

Wins / losses5 / 4

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions3

Markets (closed)9 / 12

History coverage1d

Avg bet$349

Trades / day23.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 9 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	59¢	44¢	$2,238	$1,656	−$582 (-26%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	11¢	10¢	$1,110	$1,053	−$57 (-5%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	61¢	78¢	$500	$633	+$133 (+27%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Jun 17	$31	−$30	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Jun 17	$25	+$7	+26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	Jun 17	$50	−$50	-99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Jun 17	$26	+$18	+70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Jun 17	$26	+$23	+90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Jun 17	$78	−$25	-32%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$36	+$16	+46%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$30	+$6	+20%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score	Jun 16	$3	−$3	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	BUY Up	41¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	BUY Up	41¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	BUY Up	86¢	$25	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	BUY Up	92¢	$25	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	BUY Up	78¢	$25	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	BUY Up	57¢	$26	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	BUY Up	52¢	$26	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	SELL Down	39¢	$30	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	BUY Down	31¢	$26	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	SELL Down	62¢	$31	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	BUY Down	48¢	$26	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	BUY Up	51¢	$26	2h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	BUY No	48¢	$127	12h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	BUY No	48¢	$110	12h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	BUY No	61¢	$313	13h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	BUY No	61¢	$488	13h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	BUY No	60¢	$1,028	13h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	BUY No	60¢	$172	13h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	68¢	$36	14h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score	BUY No	85¢	$3	15h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	83¢	$30	15h
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	61¢	$506	15h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	11¢	$1,140	16h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,342.99 · official $3,342.99 (match) · 34 history records