Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:45:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
75 0x7556…0f44 crypto 674 markets active 1h ago coverage 106d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 106d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$12,070 (-4%) realized −$12,105 · open +$35
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate61%414W / 265L
Whale WR72%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$440per market
Trades / day28.2pace
Fees−$153est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$635now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$159
7 days−$159
14 days−$2,030
30 days−$3,231
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 86% −$10,558
sports 14% −$4,913
other 0% +$415
politics 0% +$38
world 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -14.7% -22.8% 58% 32% -11.8%
≤30d 147 -14.6% -22.7% 59% 42% -18.1%
≤90d 371 -12.4% -20.8% 63% 47% -14.1%
all 679 -9.1% -17.7% 61% 48% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.7% 48% -14.1%
10% ← realistic here -25.6% 36% -22.3%
15% -32.8% 27% -29.8%
20% -39.4% 19% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 72% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$119 vs −$247 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$635
Realized−$12,105
Unrealized+$35
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses414 / 265
Whale WR (big bets)72%
Est. fees paid−$153
Open positions1
Markets (closed)679 / 674
History coverage106d ⚠
Avg bet$440
Trades / day28.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 679 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 24? No 88¢ 94¢ $600 $635 +$35 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 206 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 24 $277 −$277 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 24 $183 −$183 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 24 $177 −$177 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 24 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 24 $277 −$277 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 24 $199 −$199 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $401 +$32 +8%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 24 $513 +$128 +25%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $501 +$26 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 24 $132 +$37 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 24 $104 +$101 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 24 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 24 $93 +$63 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 24 $130 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 24 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 24 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 24 $102 +$27 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 24 $100 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 24 $103 +$74 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 24 $238 +$111 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 24 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 24 $302 +$30 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 24 $266 +$12 +4%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $657 +$393 +60%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $607 +$183 +30%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 24 $153 −$78 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 24 $32 $0 -1%
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $51 −$4 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 24 $94 +$101 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 24 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 24 $242 +$17 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $186 −$180 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 16 $207 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 16 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 11 $301 −$301 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 11 $549 +$57 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 11 $127 −$126 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 11 $378 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 11 $236 +$141 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 11 $224 +$13 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 11 $92 +$132 +144%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 11 $85 +$7 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 10 $673 −$650 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 10 $311 −$303 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 10 $140 −$132 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 10 $256 +$162 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 10 $362 +$325 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 10 $455 +$247 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$4 -71%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 95¢ $501 48m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 92¢ $301 52m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 92¢ $100 53m
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 81¢ $50 55m
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 84¢ $201 56m
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 78¢ $101 56m
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 75¢ $162 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $100 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $32 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $32 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $102 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $100 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $177 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $102 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $64 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $635.28 · official $635.28 (match) · 3500 history records