Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:59:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
75 0x7557…2a24 sports 43 markets active 1h ago coverage 229d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$876 (-11%) realized −$853 · open −$23
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate39%16W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$190per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$35est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$394now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$314
7 days+$271
14 days+$189
30 days+$189
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 39% −$81
world 37% −$171
politics 17% −$711
other 7% +$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-25.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +2.1% -7.7% 54% 38% -4.8%
≤30d 18 -8.4% -17.1% 50% 39% -6.4%
≤90d 21 -11.9% -20.3% 48% 38% -9.8%
all 41 -17.8% -25.7% 39% 32% -20.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.7% 32% -20.4%
10% -32.8% 29% -28.0%
15% -39.3% 27% -35.0%
20% -45.2% 20% -41.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$71 vs −$82 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

229d coverage
Net worth$394
Realized−$853
Unrealized−$23
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses16 / 25
Est. fees paid−$35
Open positions2
Markets (closed)41 / 43
History coverage229d
Avg bet$190
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Bangladesh 37¢ 34¢ $317 $297 −$20 (-6%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Over 58¢ 56¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland Jun 19 $252 +$43 +17%
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 19 $255 +$69 +27%
Will New Zealand win? Jun 19 $407 +$202 +50%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $51 −$50 -99%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $51 −$50 -99%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka Jun 16 $51 +$145 +284%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 16 $2,444 −$52 -2%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $305 +$71 +23%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 14 $400 +$41 +10%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan Jun 14 $1,002 +$72 +7%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs South Africa Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $20 +$10 +48%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 12 $38 +$28 +74%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 11 $102 −$100 -98%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W May 03 $115 −$113 -98%
Pakistan Super League: Islamabad United vs Hyderabad Kingsmen May 02 $9 +$9 +101%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 30 $102 −$100 -98%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Pakistan: Bangladesh vs Pakistan Mar 13 $15 −$15 -100%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Pakistan: Bangladesh vs Pakistan Mar 11 $21 +$34 +161%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 ICC Men’s T20 World Cup? Mar 08 $66 −$66 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 01 $160 −$160 -100%
Will Pakistan win the 2026 ICC Men’s T20 World Cup? Feb 28 $100 −$100 -100%
T20 World Cup: Sri Lanka vs Pakistan Feb 28 $165 +$97 +59%
T20 World Cup: England vs New Zealand Feb 27 $180 −$180 -100%
Will the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) win between 200 and 249 se Feb 13 $150 −$148 -99%
Will the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) win between 150 and 199 se Feb 13 $91 −$88 -97%
Will the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) win the Bangladesh parliam Feb 13 $215 +$86 +40%
Will turnout in the Bangladesh parliamentary election be below 65%? Feb 12 $50 +$202 +405%
Will the Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami (BJI) win fewer than 40 seats in t Feb 12 $100 +$6 +6%
Will the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) win between 100 and 149 se Feb 11 $93 −$93 -100%
Will Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami win the most seats in the Bangladesh p Feb 11 $100 −$100 -100%
Will voter turnout in the next New York City mayoral election be 36% o Nov 05 $180 −$177 -98%
Will Mamdani get over 50% of the vote in the general mayoral election? Nov 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Andrew Cuomo get more than 35% of the vote in 2025 NYC mayoral el Nov 05 $140 −$140 -100%
Will Zohran Mamdani win by 10-20%? Nov 05 $30 −$30 -98%
Will Eric Adams get over 1% in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 05 $10 +$24 +241%
Will Zohran Mamdani win by 20-30%? Nov 03 $30 −$30 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $101 54m
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 37¢ $323 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland SELL New Zealand 83¢ $295 24h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland BUY New Zealand 70¢ $252 25h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh $51 33h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Bangladesh 60¢ $315 33h
Will New Zealand win? SELL Yes 60¢ $610 35h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 38¢ $204 38h
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 53¢ $51 3d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 54¢ $51 4d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka SELL Sri Lanka 98¢ $196 4d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY Sri Lanka 25¢ $51 4d
Will New Zealand win? BUY Yes 39¢ $305 4d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 62¢ $644 4d
Will New Zealand win? BUY Yes 39¢ $102 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $101 5d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 57¢ $200 5d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 73¢ $500 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? SELL Yes 72¢ $441 5d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $203 6d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan SELL India 100¢ $1,074 6d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan BUY India 93¢ $1,002 6d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 28¢ $102 6d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands BUY Netherlands 12¢ $21 6d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 67¢ $101 6d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs South Africa BUY South Africa 17¢ $10 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? BUY Yes 65¢ $400 7d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 78¢ $1,607 7d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $30 7d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 67¢ $20 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $394.48 · official $394.58 (match) · 90 history records