Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:27:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
75 0x7558…22dd other 48 markets active 2h ago coverage 605d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$99 (-1%) realized −$99 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate17%8W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$351per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 81% −$14
politics 12% −$6
other 4% −$3
sports 1% −$77
crypto 1% +$1
tech 0% $0
culture 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 17 -0.1% -9.7% 12% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 32 -5.1% -14.1% 12% 3% -16.1%
all 47 -3.6% -12.8% 17% 2% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 2% -10.1%
10% -21.1% 2% -18.7%
15% -28.7% 2% -26.5%
20% -35.7% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 85% · top 2 93% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

605d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized−$99
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses8 / 39
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)47 / 48
History coverage605d
Avg bet$351
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $39 $39 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $12 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $13 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $13 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 10 $10 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $9 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $11 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 04 $12 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $10 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $13 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 02 $16 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.20 in May? Jun 02 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me May 31 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 30 $14 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $75 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 24 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 23 $13 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 22 $12 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 18 $60 $0 -0%
Will FC Cincinnati win on 2026-05-13? May 18 $14 +$6 +42%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 11 $53 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $8 −$8 -100%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $59 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 06 $65 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 3? May 06 $25 $0 +0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $64 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $60 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 21 $65 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $65 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $60 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 19 $62 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $64 $0 -0%
Ducks vs. Maple Leafs Apr 09 $76 −$76 -100%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? Mar 11 $20 $0 -0%
Backpack FDV above $4B one day after launch? Mar 11 $39 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Mar 05 $4 $0 +0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of February? Mar 05 $75 $0 +0%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Feb 13 $74 +$1 +1%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 26 $13,619 −$14 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 09 $1 $0 -1%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 19 $27 −$1 -2%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Aug 04 $11 $0 -2%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 02 $62 −$1 -2%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 27 $11 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 10 $250 −$1 -0%
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? Oct 31 $1,163 −$4 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 28 $158 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 24 $234 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? BUY No 99¢ $39 1h
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $12 13h
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $12 17h
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $13 5d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $13 5d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $13 6d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $13 6d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $10 7d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 7d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $9 8d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $9 8d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $11 12d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $11 12d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $12 13d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $12 13d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 14d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 14d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $13 15d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $13 15d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $14 17d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $14 17d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $14 18d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $14 18d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $12 19d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $12 19d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $16 21d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $11 24d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $11 24d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $13 25d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $13 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.72 · official $38.72 (match) · 237 history records