Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T14:49:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
75 0x755c…ba9f crypto 79 markets active 0h ago coverage 106d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$167 (-7%) realized −$129 · open −$38
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate66%35W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$851now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days−$175
14 days−$125
30 days−$99
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 34% +$79
finance 18% −$6
world 18% −$175
politics 12% −$18
crypto 11% −$6
culture 4% −$1
tech 2% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-26.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -29.7% -36.4% 61% 29% -44.0%
≤30d 42 -19.1% -26.8% 69% 38% -17.0%
≤90d 53 -18.7% -26.5% 66% 40% -15.3%
all 53 -18.7% -26.5% 66% 40% -15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.5% 40% -15.3%
10% -33.5% 9% -23.4%
15% -39.9% 4% -30.8%
20% -45.8% 2% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$12 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$851
Realized−$129
Unrealized−$38
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses35 / 18
Open positions26
Markets (closed)53 / 79
History coverage106d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 26 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026? Yes 39¢ 32¢ $139 $115 −$24 (-17%)
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 93¢ 92¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 87¢ 90¢ $86 $90 +$3 (+4%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? Yes 56¢ 48¢ $80 $68 −$12 (-15%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? No 94¢ 85¢ $75 $68 −$7 (-10%)
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? No 93¢ 99¢ $55 $59 +$4 (+6%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in June? No 95¢ 98¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+4%)
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $84 in June? No 94¢ 99¢ $40 $42 +$2 (+6%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in June? No 96¢ 99¢ $40 $41 +$1 (+3%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in June? No 96¢ 96¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $20 $24 +$4 (+21%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? No 89¢ 98¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+10%)
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 15¢ $11 $19 +$8 (+68%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-14%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $14 $16 +$2 (+11%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in June? No 97¢ 97¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-0%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-9%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 7¢ $12 $9 −$3 (-26%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? Yes 22¢ 15¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-30%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 4¢ $11 $6 −$5 (-47%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June? No 86¢ 85¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in June? No 94¢ 94¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 82¢ 81¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in June? Jun 23 $40 +$6 +15%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 23 $60 +$9 +14%
Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 21? Jun 22 $1 $0 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 21? Jun 22 $1 $0 +8%
Will Vance shake hands with an Iranian official by June 20? Jun 21 $7 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 20? Jun 21 $30 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 20 $28 +$1 +3%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? Jun 20 $20 +$3 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 19 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 19 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 19 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 19 $12 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 19 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 19 $10 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 19 $3 −$2 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$1 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 19 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 19 $3 −$2 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 19 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 19 $3 −$2 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$1 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$1 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 19 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 19 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 19 $3 +$1 +18%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 19 $1 $0 +24%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $182 −$182 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? Jun 15 $10 +$2 +16%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? Jun 11 $333 +$26 +8%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 in June? Jun 10 $20 +$14 +70%
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 275M by June 5? Jun 10 $75 +$9 +12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $116 +$7 +6%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 07 $16 +$3 +17%
Nothing Ever Happens: May Jun 01 $14 +$1 +10%
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $62 +$7 +11%
Will Russia enter Mykhailivka by May 31? Jun 01 $24 +$8 +35%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 in May? May 30 $53 +$9 +16%
Pam Bondi testifies before congress by May 31? May 28 $24 −$10 -41%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $390 end of April? May 01 $34 +$4 +12%
Will claude-opus-4-7 be the top AI model on April 24, 2026 (Style Cont Apr 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the top AI model on April 24, 2026 (S Apr 24 $1 −$1 -56%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 14? Apr 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in April? Apr 18 $14 −$4 -30%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? Apr 18 $37 +$3 +8%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? Apr 12 $37 −$1 -2%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 12 $27 +$10 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $20 20m
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in June? SELL No 100¢ $46 2h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in June? BUY No 97¢ $15 2h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in June? BUY No 94¢ $3 2h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? BUY No 86¢ $10 4h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 6h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June? BUY No 86¢ $5 7h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? BUY Yes 56¢ $5 8h
Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 8h
Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by June 30, 2026? BUY No 3¢ $2 32h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 89¢ $5 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 21? BUY No 96¢ $1 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 21? BUY No 92¢ $1 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 89¢ $32 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 20? BUY No 93¢ $30 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $13 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 84¢ $23 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL No 52¢ $24 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 43¢ $20 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $11 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Down 76¢ $8 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $7 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $9 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $2 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $850.92 · official $850.92 (match) · 285 history records