Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T06:21:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
75 0x755f…7888 politics 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 113d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized −$4 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate50%7W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$179now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 113d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 45% −$5
crypto 32% +$2
tech 20% −$2
sports 2% −$4
world 1% $0
other 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-27.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +2.4% -7.4% 60% 40% -9.9%
≤30d 9 +12.0% +1.3% 67% 44% -9.8%
≤90d 14 -20.2% -27.8% 50% 29% -12.5%
all 14 -20.2% -27.8% 50% 29% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.8% 29% -12.5%
10% -34.7% 21% -20.9%
15% -41.0% 14% -28.5%
20% -46.8% 7% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 71% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -45% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

113d coverage
Net worth$179
Realized−$4
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses7 / 7
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)14 / 18
History coverage113d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? No 93¢ 91¢ $81 $79 −$2 (-2%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? No 94¢ 94¢ $39 $39 −$0 (-1%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 90¢ 90¢ $38 $38 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? No 86¢ 86¢ $23 $23 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 22 $12 +$2 +20%
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 22 $31 −$9 -31%
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 22 $30 +$7 +25%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 22 $61 −$3 -4%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 22 $63 +$2 +2%
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $9 −$2 -25%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $2 +$1 +47%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers Jun 03 $1 +$1 +65%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? Jun 03 $2 $0 +10%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 11 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-11? May 11 $2 −$2 -99%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Delhi Capitals May 11 $2 −$1 -99%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 11 $2 −$2 -99%
Devils vs. Blues May 11 $3 $0 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? BUY No 94¢ $40 1h
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom BUY No 90¢ $38 1h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $81 1h
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $23 1h
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL No 99¢ $15 1h
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL No 62¢ $21 1h
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL Yes 89¢ $37 1h
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 90¢ $58 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $65 1h
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY No 82¢ $12 19d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $63 19d
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $30 19d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $61 19d
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY No 88¢ $31 19d
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes 16¢ $7 19d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $4 19d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 67¢ $2 41d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? BUY Yes 74¢ $1 41d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? BUY Yes 74¢ $1 41d
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 41d
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 20¢ $4 41d
Pistons vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 60¢ $1 41d
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-11? BUY Yes 55¢ $2 41d
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Delhi Capitals BUY Punjab Kings 78¢ $2 41d
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? BUY No 91¢ $2 41d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 63¢ $2 41d
Devils vs. Blues BUY Devils 92¢ $1 113d
Devils vs. Blues BUY Devils 92¢ $1 113d
Devils vs. Blues BUY Devils 92¢ $1 113d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $179.17 · official $179.17 (match) · 51 history records