Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:21:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
75 0x7563…7654 crypto 391 markets active 0h ago coverage 567d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$9,071 (-9%) realized −$9,071 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate42%163W / 228L
Whale WR42%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$251per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$137est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$935
7 days−$1,607
14 days−$1,607
30 days−$1,607
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 74% −$3,667
other 19% −$7,779
sports 7% +$312
world 0% −$87
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 -35.5% -41.7% 30% 30% -23.5%
≤30d 46 -35.5% -41.7% 30% 30% -23.5%
≤90d 356 -6.1% -15.0% 42% 41% -14.9%
all 391 -8.2% -16.9% 42% 40% -19.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.9% 40% -19.9%
10% -24.9% 40% -27.6%
15% -32.1% 38% -34.6%
20% -38.8% 36% -41.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 42% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +6% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$239 vs −$220 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

567d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$9,071
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses163 / 228
Whale WR (big bets)42%
Est. fees paid−$137
Open positions0
Markets (closed)391 / 391
History coverage567d
Avg bet$251
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 391 Trades
no open positions (33 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 17 $103 +$88 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $208 +$287 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $209 +$334 +160%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $207 +$237 +115%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 17 $414 +$361 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $207 +$182 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $210 −$200 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 17 $209 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $207 −$200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $209 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 17 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $105 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $105 −$100 -95%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 17 $766 +$629 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $105 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 17 $104 +$98 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $103 −$19 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 17 $208 −$200 -96%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $411 −$125 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $314 −$300 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 17 $415 −$400 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $414 −$172 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 16 $311 +$329 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 16 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 16 $104 +$166 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 16 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 16 $420 −$400 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $106 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 16 $211 −$200 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 16 $207 +$209 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 16 $208 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $418 −$400 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 16 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 16 $414 +$399 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 16 $210 −$200 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 16 $207 +$191 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -94%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,117 +$232 +21%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $88 −$87 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $555 −$543 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $133 −$129 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Apr 09 $197 −$197 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Apr 09 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Apr 09 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Apr 09 $203 −$195 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $103 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $495 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $104 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $104 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $543 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $105 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $104 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $444 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $102 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $389 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $105 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $775 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $103 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $104 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $104 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $103 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $105 7h
Argentina leading at halftime? SELL Yes 86¢ $1,395 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 906 history records