Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:56:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
75 0x7567…63e7 other 60 markets active 1h ago coverage 87d
RISKYcopy with care
Total PnL +$144 (+30%) realized +$144 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +39% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +26% what you keep after slip
Net edge+26%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate37%21W / 36L
Drawdown43%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$215
7 days+$239
14 days+$239
30 days+$239
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% +$224
other 37% −$34
crypto 2% −$7
world 2% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+25.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +42.4% +28.8% 44% 41% +58.3%
≤30d 34 +42.4% +28.8% 44% 41% +58.3%
≤90d 57 +38.9% +25.7% 37% 35% +27.4%
all 57 +38.9% +25.7% 37% 35% +27.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +25.7% 35% +27.4%
10% +13.6% 33% +15.3%
15% +2.7% 33% +4.1%
20% -7.4% 32% -6.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +43% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +39% · $-wt +43% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +45% → late +33% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$4 · ×4.01 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.34 per $1 lost it wins $2.34
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized+$144
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses21 / 36
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions3
Markets (closed)57 / 60
History coverage87d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown43%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 42¢ 40¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 49¢ 48¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 22¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+57%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 +$5 +91%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 +$9 +184%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 +$11 +216%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $56 +$25 +45%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 −$3 -14%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $41 +$68 +167%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $20 +$28 +140%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $25 +$28 +109%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ assists Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Rayan Cherki: 1+ assists Jun 16 $7 −$7 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $31 +$38 +124%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $10 +$17 +165%
Cabo Verde to score first vs. Spain? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 $0 -10%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $1 +$10 +982%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $6 −$1 -20%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 $0 +3%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 14 $3 $0 -14%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 $0 -4%
Curaçao to score first vs. Germany? Jun 14 $5 −$2 -43%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +19%
Morocco to score first vs. Brazil? Jun 13 $5 +$9 +185%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $5 +$20 +388%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 +$22 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $13 −$13 -98%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $5 +$4 +73%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-07? Apr 07 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? Apr 07 $11 −$11 -98%
Will Sporting CP vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Apr 07 $5 +$3 +69%
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-04-05? Apr 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Manchester City FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? Apr 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-04-11? Apr 03 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-04-06? Apr 03 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Toulouse FC end in a draw? Apr 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Argentina vs. Zambia end in a draw? Mar 31 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 34¢ $10 54m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 15¢ $15 54m
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 SELL Over 36¢ $16 54m
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 BUY Over 11¢ $5 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 1h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $51 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $20 3h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $25 3h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 48¢ $30 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 SELL Over 35¢ $18 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $109 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 37¢ $41 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $20 13h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $20 24h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $53 24h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ assists BUY Yes 29¢ $5 39h
Rayan Cherki: 1+ assists BUY Yes 35¢ $7 39h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $30 39h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $25 47h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $31 47h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 37¢ $10 47h
Cabo Verde to score first vs. Spain? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Cabo Verde to score first vs. Spain? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 1 Tunisia? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.28 · official $27.35 (match) · 98 history records