Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:11:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
75 0x7569…71a1 crypto 154 markets active 2h ago coverage 35d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$12 (-1%) realized −$11 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate83%126W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day6.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$169now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$30
7 days−$19
14 days−$19
30 days−$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 44% +$12
other 35% −$6
sports 12% −$21
world 7% $0
weather 1% $0
economics 1% −$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 80 -0.3% -9.8% 98% 0% -10.6%
≤30d 120 -1.2% -10.6% 83% 8% -10.9%
≤90d 151 +1.9% -7.8% 83% 13% -10.3%
all 151 +1.9% -7.8% 83% 13% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 13% -10.3%
10% -16.6% 11% -18.9%
15% -24.7% 9% -26.7%
20% -32.0% 9% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$169
Realized−$11
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses126 / 25
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)151 / 154
History coverage35d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 151 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $93 $93 −$1 (-1%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $38 $38 +$0 (+0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $38 $38 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 17 $9 $0 +1%
Spread: América FC (-2.5) Jun 17 $36 −$36 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 3 Algeria? Jun 17 $36 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 3 Algeria? Jun 17 $36 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $36 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 2 Norway? Jun 17 $36 $0 +0%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $36 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $36 $0 +1%
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $19 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $28 $0 +2%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 2 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $28 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $28 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7AM ET Jun 15 $28 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $28 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $27 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $27 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $39 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $38 +$1 +2%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 15 $38 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? Jun 15 $24 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $38 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 3 Japan? Jun 14 $38 +$1 +2%
Exact Score: CD Unión La Calera 3 - 2 CF Universidad de Chile? Jun 14 $38 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 14? Jun 14 $38 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 14? Jun 14 $38 $0 +0%
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 20 million views on day 1? Jun 14 $13 $0 +0%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1 Jun 14 $9 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 14 $37 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 14 $37 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 14 $37 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +2%
Exact Score: Australia 3 - 0 Türkiye? Jun 14 $11 $0 +0%
Spread: Australia (-2.5) Jun 14 $11 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Haiti 3 - 3 Scotland? Jun 14 $14 $0 +1%
Spread: Haiti (-2.5) Jun 14 $17 $0 +1%
Exact Score: CD Ñublense 3 - 2 CD Huachipato? Jun 14 $12 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 14 $11 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 3 Morocco? Jun 14 $15 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 3 Morocco? Jun 14 $11 $0 +0%
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) Jun 14 $11 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Qatar 2 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 13 $17 $0 +2%
Spread: Qatar (-2.5) Jun 13 $12 $0 +0%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $14 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2PM ET Jun 13 $11 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 13 $13 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 13? Jun 13 $12 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $94 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $9 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $9 3h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 3 Algeria? BUY No 99¢ $36 7h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 3 Algeria? BUY No 99¢ $36 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $36 7h
Spread: América FC (-2.5) BUY Fortaleza EC 100¢ $36 11h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 100¢ $36 11h
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 2 Norway? BUY No 100¢ $36 12h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $36 17h
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 2 New Zealand? BUY No 99¢ $19 32h
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 2 Egypt? BUY No 98¢ $28 37h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 2 Cabo Verde? BUY No 99¢ $28 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $28 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $28 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $28 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $27 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $27 46h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $39 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $38 47h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY No 100¢ $38 2d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 15? BUY No 100¢ $38 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $38 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 100¢ $38 2d
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 3 Japan? BUY No 98¢ $38 2d
Exact Score: CD Unión La Calera 3 - 2 CF Universidad de Chile? BUY No 99¢ $38 2d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1 SELL No 100¢ $9 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $38 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $38 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $37 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $169.18 · official $169.18 (match) · 339 history records