Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:49:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
75 0x756b…19f3 other 55 markets active 2h ago coverage 465d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$5 (+1%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate33%18W / 37L
Drawdown17%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% +$2
other 35% $0
politics 11% +$1
economics 4% $0
sports 4% $0
crypto 3% +$1
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -1.7% -11.1% 0% 0% -10.4%
≤30d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 38% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 15 +4.9% -5.1% 40% 7% -8.9%
all 55 +1.4% -8.2% 33% 2% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 2% -9.1%
10% -17.0% 2% -17.8%
15% -25.0% 2% -25.7%
20% -32.4% 2% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.75 per $1 lost it wins $2.75
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

465d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses18 / 37
Open positions0
Markets (closed)55 / 55
History coverage465d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 55 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 23 $34 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $14 $0 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 26 $66 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $31 $0 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 25 $32 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 25 $22 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 24 $33 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 24 $31 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 23 $4 +$3 +73%
Will Alberta join the US? May 23 $28 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 23 $28 $0 -1%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 20 $33 $0 +0%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 20 $30 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 20 $17 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 19 $6 $0 +2%
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between 0% and -1%? Jul 10 $22 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jul 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 10 $9 $0 -2%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 10 $7 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jul 10 $7 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 40% and 60% on August 15 Jul 10 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Jul 09 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 09 $7 $0 -0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 09 $21 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Jul 09 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Jul 09 $6 $0 +0%
Will SPD win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jul 08 $9 $0 +0%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 08 $2 $0 -6%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 World Series? Jul 08 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 07 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 07 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 07 $15 $0 +0%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 06 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 06 $14 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026? Jul 06 $15 $0 -2%
Will Elon tweet 225–239 times July 4–11? Jul 06 $15 $0 -1%
Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? Jul 06 $14 +$1 +7%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 04 $15 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 03 $14 $0 -1%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 National League Championshi Jun 26 $16 $0 -2%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian presidential election? May 19 $1 $0 +1%
Will Atalanta win the Serie A? Apr 09 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2025 National League Championshi Apr 08 $2 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by $250-500b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 Apr 07 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the Western Conference? Apr 07 $16 $0 -2%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Apr 05 $1 $0 -2%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Apr 04 $17 $0 +0%
Will Southampton be relegated? Apr 03 $17 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in his first 100 days? Apr 01 $2 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $110 in March? Mar 31 $15 +$1 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $4 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $30 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $34 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 59¢ $5 27d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 59¢ $27 27d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 59¢ $8 27d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 59¢ $23 27d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 69¢ $34 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 69¢ $34 28d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $31 28d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $31 28d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $32 28d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $32 29d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $22 29d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $22 29d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $32 29d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $32 29d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $31 29d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $23 30d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $8 30d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL Yes 19¢ $7 30d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 30d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $28 30d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $28 30d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 92¢ $2 30d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 92¢ $26 30d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 93¢ $28 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 41¢ $2 31d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 39¢ $2 32d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 39¢ $5 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 154 history records