Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:17:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
75 0x756f…1526 other 60 markets active 1h ago coverage 459d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$4 (+1%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate39%23W / 36L
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$4
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% −$1
other 27% +$1
politics 10% $0
economics 6% $0
culture 4% $0
tech 3% $0
sports 2% +$3
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -6.3% -15.2% 0% 0% -10.8%
≤30d 10 -3.0% -12.3% 20% 10% -9.8%
≤90d 10 -3.0% -12.3% 20% 10% -9.8%
all 59 +2.7% -7.1% 39% 7% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.1% 7% -9.1%
10% -16.0% 2% -17.8%
15% -24.1% 2% -25.7%
20% -31.6% 2% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.71 per $1 lost it wins $1.71
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

459d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses23 / 36
Open positions1
Markets (closed)59 / 60
History coverage459d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 40¢ 42¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $40 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $6 −$1 -22%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $138 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 17 $21 −$1 -6%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $43 $0 -1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $4 $0 -12%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $1 $0 -3%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $3 $0 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 10 $24 +$3 +11%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $37 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Jul 12 $13 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Jul 12 $12 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 12 $15 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jul 12 $4 $0 +1%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 Jul 10 $14 $0 -0%
Will Bertie Ahern win the Irish Presidential Election? Jul 10 $12 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Jul 10 $2 $0 -6%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 10 $1 $0 +3%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 10 $2 −$1 -25%
Will Manfred Reyes Villa win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jul 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ali Khamenei be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 09 $12 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Jul 09 $26 $0 +0%
Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? Jul 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jul 09 $5 $0 +4%
Will Bilibili Gaming win the 2025 Mid-Season Invitational? Jul 09 $12 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 09 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 08 $14 $0 -2%
Will Elon tweet 225–239 times July 4–11? Jul 07 $14 $0 +1%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 07 $15 $0 +0%
Will Remco Evenepoel win the Tour de France 2025? Jul 07 $15 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 06 $11 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 06 $3 $0 +0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Jul 06 $2 $0 +15%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 06 $2 $0 -5%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 World Series? Jul 06 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 National League Championship? Jul 01 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Jul 01 $2 $0 -10%
Will Meta buy TikTok? Jun 27 $8 $0 +2%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by less than 25,000 betw Jun 26 $7 $0 +4%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 04 $1 $0 +6%
Will egg prices be between $5.75 and $6.00 in April? May 13 $7 $0 +2%
Will annual inflation increase by 2.6% in April? May 11 $7 $0 +0%
Will Frank McCourt buy TikTok? May 11 $6 $0 +0%
Will Tom Hanks be named in Epstein files? May 11 $1 $0 +4%
Will Peter Turkson be the next pope? May 10 $4 +$1 +14%
Conservatives win majority in Canadian election? May 06 $9 $0 +1%
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 27 $4 $0 -1%
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in Ontario in the next Apr 25 $8 $0 -0%
No Trump announcement of next Fed Chair by June 30? Apr 25 $7 $0 +0%
Will Cade Cunningham win 2024-25 NBA Most Improved? Apr 24 $2 +$3 +172%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $40 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $40 3h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 25¢ $4 17h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 32¢ $6 21h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $41 29h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $41 32h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $34 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $34 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $41 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $41 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $29 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $8 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 84¢ $38 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 8¢ $3 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 9¢ $4 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 85¢ $42 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 85¢ $1 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 85¢ $42 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 22¢ $19 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 24¢ $2 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 23¢ $1 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 23¢ $1 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 23¢ $8 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 23¢ $8 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 23¢ $17 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 23¢ $17 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.08 · official $0.00 (match) · 211 history records